Bull Rankings model

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) stock analysis

Utilities - Regulated Gas. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
SWX
Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. · Utilities - Regulated Gas
55.5Score
$84.14Oct 9 close$6.1B
1Y Target$100.50Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$175.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$314.14Long-dated conviction
FCF-$528mTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$528m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev-21.6%FY YoY
F
Revenue -21.6% — severe decline · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.85
A-
D/E 0.85 — less debt than most Utilities peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S*3.5x
C
P/S 3.5x — expensive vs Utilities peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.86
C+
PEG 1.86 — modest premium; above fair value

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 55.5
Quality55.3
Growth41.7
Value74.3
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
11% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
ROIC5.2% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Utilities - Regulated Gas · market cap $6.1b. 11% off the 52-week high of $94.47. Revenue -22% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $100.50 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$528m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -22% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $100.50 (8-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $175.78 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $314.14 — return distribution heavily skewed.

SWX vs the Top Picks average

PillarSWXBook avgDiff
Quality5583-28
Growth4289-47
Value7476-2

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+0.7 over 82 daily scores
From 54.8 (Jun 22) → 55.5 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

SWX at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD55.5/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY55.3GROWTH41.7VALUE74.3
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$84.1LOW $76.7HIGH $94.5Trading at the 42nd percentile of its 52-week range ($76.7–$94.5).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100SWX 55.5Top 36% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+6%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.2%
90-day change+2.1%
Forward EPS estimate$5.00

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SWX to earn is drifting higher (+2.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
23
Position size
$1,935
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$63.11
25% below $84.14
$ at risk if stopped
$483.81
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX): score, valuation & FAQ

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. (SWX) is a Utilities - Regulated Gas company that scores 55.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while FCF (F) and Rev (F) rate weaker.

Is SWX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SWX 55.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SWX score 55.5 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 74.3 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 41.7 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SWX earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (F) and Rev (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SWX is measured against Utilities - Regulated Gas peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is SWX overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for SWX — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in SWX?

Free cash flow is negative (-$528m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -22% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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