Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

STX analysis

Seagate Technology Holdings plcComputer Hardware. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

STX
Seagate Technology Holdings plc · Computer Hardware
FCF$2.4bB
Rev+28.9%A-
D/E1.65C
P/E62.8xC
PEG0.49A
59.9Score
$870.77$197.7B
1Y Target$1,106Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$1,619Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,402Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.4bTTM
B
FCF $2.4b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+28.9%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +28.9% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E1.65
C
D/E 1.65 — more levered than most Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E62.8x
C
P/E 62.8 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.49
A
PEG 0.49 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.9
Quality0.70
Growth0.69
Value0.44
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value509% aboveest. fair value ~$143
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability51% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC49.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Computer Hardware · market cap $197.7b. Down 24% from 52-week high of $1145.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +29% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.49 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $1,106 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. FCF converts 101% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $197.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 62.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 2.10 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 18.0x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,106 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,619 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $2,402 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

STX vs the Top Picks average

PillarSTXBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.83-0.12
Growth0.690.91-0.22
Value0.440.75-0.30

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+4.5 over 33 daily scores
From 55.4 (Jun 22) → 59.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
2
Position size
$1,742
3.5% of portfolio
Stop price
$653.08
25% below $870.77
$ at risk if stopped
$435.38
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX): score, valuation & FAQ

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is a Computer Hardware company that scores 59.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and Rev (A-). On valuation, STX sits about 509% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is STX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores STX 59.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Seagate Technology Holdings plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does STX score 59.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). STX earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is STX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $870.77, STX sits about 509% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 62.8x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in STX?

Trailing P/E 62.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 2.10 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 18.0x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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