Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SMCI analysis

Super Micro Computer, Inc.Computer Hardware. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

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SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc. · Computer Hardware
FCF-$6.8bF
Rev+56.2%A
D/E0.64C+
P/S0.7xA
PEG0.91B+
70.9Score
$37.24$24.1B
1Y Target$42.38Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$74.11Compound horizon
10Y Target$132.46Long-dated conviction
FCF-$6.8bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$6.8b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+56.2%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +56.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.64
C+
D/E 0.64 — above the Technology debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S0.7x
A
P/S 0.7x — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.91
B+
PEG 0.91 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.9
Quality55.4
Growth98.7
Value65.3
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
37% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability12% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC15.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Super Micro’s AI‑focused server platform – especially its liquid‑cooled GPU blades – is riding a 56.2% YoY revenue surge, fueling a PE of 20.1 and a PEG of 0.91 that signals growth priced at a discount. Our Bull Rankings model crowns Growth as the strongest pillar (98) and the 56% top‑line acceleration proves that compounding will persist as AI workloads expand. The thesis hinges on the company’s ability to keep scaling AI server shipments faster than the market, turning that revenue rocket into sustainable earnings momentum.
Moat
SMCI’s open‑standard, modular architecture locks data‑center customers into a bespoke ecosystem of SuperBlade, FlexTwin and GPU‑dense racks, creating high switching costs and a captive install base. The integrated liquid‑cooling solution for AI inference gives it a cost‑advantage in power‑intensive workloads, while the 16.5% ROE reflects pricing power derived from this differentiated engineering platform.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty beta of 1.97 and is burning cash – ‑$6.8B of free cash flow – exposing it to a tightening credit environment and margin pressure (profit margin only 3.7%). A slowdown in AI capex or a competitive onslaught from larger cloud providers could crush the growth engine, and a breach of the 52‑week low ($19.48) would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $42.38 (16-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $74.11 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $132.46 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SMCI vs the Top Picks average

PillarSMCIBook avgDiff
Quality0.550.84-0.28
Growth0.990.84+0.15
Value0.650.78-0.13

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.3 over 47 daily scores
From 70.6 (Jun 22) → 70.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.6%
90-day change+3.9%
Forward EPS estimate$5.33

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SMCI to earn is drifting higher (+3.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,974
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.93
25% below $37.24
$ at risk if stopped
$493.43
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI): score, valuation & FAQ

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is a Computer Hardware company that scores 70.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/S (A) and PEG (B+), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is SMCI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SMCI 70.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SMCI score 70.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SMCI earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/S (A) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SMCI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for SMCI — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in SMCI?

The stock trades at a lofty beta of 1.97 and is burning cash – ‑$6.8B of free cash flow – exposing it to a tightening credit environment and margin pressure (profit margin only 3.7%). A slowdown in AI capex or a competitive onslaught from larger cloud providers could crush the growth engine, and a breach of the 52‑week low ($19.48) would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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