The Bull Rankings scorecard — our quality-growth score is 72 / 100, built from three pillars scored 0–100: Quality 72, Growth 86, Value 71 (valuation is judged against sector peers). At today's price, our reverse-DCF read says the market is implicitly betting on free-cash-flow growth of about 15% a year next year, fading to 3% a year by year ten — a gauge of how much optimism is already in the stock.
The thesis
Sportradar Group AG is trading at $12.12 for a $3.6 b market cap, a price that sits comfortably below its sector peers when measured by P/S of 2.3. The Bull Rankings model gives the stock a 72/100 quality‑growth score, with Growth at 86 and Value at 71. The growth pillar is the engine of the thesis; the value pillar, while the softest, still marks the stock as cheap relative to peers. The model’s reverse‑DCF shows a free‑cash‑flow growth of about 15 % in year 1, tapering to 3 % by year 10—exactly in line with the trailing revenue growth of 16.6 %. Thus, the current price already prices in a realistic, modest acceleration, leaving room for upside if the company can sustain its revenue momentum.
What the business actually is
Sportradar’s core is a sports‑data and betting‑technology platform. It delivers betting and gaming content, real‑time sports data points, and pre‑match and live odds services to the betting and media industries across the globe. Its product mix includes streaming and betting engagement services, iGaming (virtual soccer, horse and dog racing, basketball, tennis, baseball, cricket), and managed betting and trading services. The company’s reach spans Switzerland, the United States, North America, Africa, Malta, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean, giving it a truly global footprint.
Why it can (or can't) keep compounding
Margins sit at 7.8 %, and the firm’s debt‑to‑equity of 0.08 signals a lean balance sheet. The ROE of 10.3 % indicates that the company is turning equity into profit efficiently. The strongest model signal—Short track record (caution)—reminds us that the business is still maturing, but the Foreign reporter (EUR) tag shows that the company’s valuation is being driven by a broader European investor base, which often values data‑intensive, high‑growth firms more favorably. Sportradar’s moat lies in its data ecosystem: real‑time points, odds services, and integrated betting platforms create a high switching cost for clients. Competitors would need to replicate a global data feed, regulatory compliance, and a robust betting engine—all of which require significant capital and time.
The valuation question
The stock trades at P/S of 2.3, comfortably below the sector average, and the analyst consensus 1‑year target of $18.49 reflects a potential upside from today’s price. The reverse‑DCF implied growth of 15 % aligns with the 16.6 % revenue growth, suggesting that the market has not over‑optimistic expectations. If the company can maintain or slightly exceed this growth trajectory, the current valuation leaves a cushion for a modest upside. Conversely, a slowdown below 15 % would quickly erode the implied value, given the tight margin profile.
The bear case
The most compelling risk is the weakest pillar—Value at 71. While still cheap, it signals that the stock is not as undervalued as its growth story would suggest. A debt‑to‑equity of 0.08 is low, but the company’s profit margin of 7.8 % is modest; any pressure on margins—whether from increased competition or regulatory costs—could compress earnings. A concrete trigger would be a margin decline below 7 %, which would invalidate the current P/S valuation and push the stock toward a more defensive stance.
What would change our mind
- Revenue growth falling below 12 % would break the alignment between implied and actual growth, turning the price into a pessimistic bet.
- Profit margin slipping below 6 % would erode the value pillar, making the stock less attractive relative to peers.
- Debt‑to‑equity rising above 0.15 would signal financial strain and could limit the company’s ability to invest in its data platform, weakening the moat.
If any of these thresholds are breached, the Bull Rankings model would downgrade the quality‑growth score, and the thesis would shift from bullish to cautious.