Spotify Technology S.A. · Internet Content & Information
FCF$3.7bB
Rev+9.7%B
D/E0.06A
P/E27.8xC+
PEG1.68C+
49.7Score
$511.82$105.2B
1Y Target$606.37Analyst consensus · 38 analysts
5Y Target$887.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,317Long-dated conviction
FCF$3.7bTTM · 03/26B
FCF $3.7b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+9.7%TTM YoYB
Revenue +9.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.06A
D/E 0.06 — least levered decile in Communication Services (≈10th pctile)
P/E27.8xC+
P/E 27.8 — above the Communication Services median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.68C+
PEG 1.68 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 49.7
Quality0.76
Growth0.64
Value0.30
Why this score
Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
32% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value81% aboveest. fair value ~$283
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~31% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability37% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.7% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Internet Content & Information · market cap $105.2b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $748.30 — deep drawdown territory. 38 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $606.37 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
Net margin 13% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $105.2b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.58 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $606.37 (38-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $887.78 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,317 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
SPOT vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
SPOT
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.76
0.83
-0.07
Growth
0.64
0.92
-0.28
Value
0.30
0.75
-0.45
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · SPOT
Trend
-4.1 over 37 daily scores
From 53.8 (Jun 22) → 49.7 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · SPOT
$
%
%
Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,535
3.1% of portfolio
Stop price
$383.87
25% below $511.82
$ at risk if stopped
$383.87
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT) is a Internet Content & Information company that scores 49.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A). On valuation, SPOT sits about 81% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is SPOT a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores SPOT 49.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Spotify Technology S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does SPOT score 49.7 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SPOT earns its highest marks on D/E (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is SPOT overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $511.82, SPOT sits about 81% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.8x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in SPOT?
Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.58 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.