Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. — Specialty Retail. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
SBH
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. · Specialty Retail
FCF$241mC
Rev+1.1%C
D/E1.74C+
P/E8.6xA
PEG0.72A-
62.4Score
$16.42$1.5B
1Y Target$17.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$21.46Compound horizon
10Y Target$27.52Long-dated conviction
FCF$241mTTMC
FCF $241m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+1.1%TTM YoYC
Revenue +1.1% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E1.74C+
D/E 1.74 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E8.6xA
P/E 8.6 — cheapest decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.72A-
PEG 0.72 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 62.4
Quality73.5
Growth44.2
Value74.8
Why this score
Buying back stock
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value60% belowest. fair value ~$41
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability67% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.7% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. presents a compelling value opportunity, trading at a low P/E of 8.6 and a PEG ratio of 0.72, despite generating robust $241m in free cash flow against a $1.5b market cap. Our model's 'Value 75' pillar, its strongest, highlights this disconnect, suggesting the market is overly pessimistic about future prospects. The core thesis rests on the market recognizing the durable cash generation from its dual Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group segments, which serve both retail and professional customers.
Moat
The company's extensive distribution network as a specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies, catering to both retail customers and salon professionals through its Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group segments, provides a significant barrier to entry. This scale allows for efficient product delivery and strong relationships with key brands like Wella, L'Oreal, Clairol, OPI, Wahl, and BaByliss Pro. The impressive 22.1% ROE reflects this operational efficiency and the pricing power derived from its established position in the professional beauty supply chain.
Risk
The primary concern for SBH is its anemic growth profile, highlighted by our model's weakest pillar, 'Growth 44', and a meager 1.1% FY YoY revenue growth. This slow top-line expansion, coupled with a significant debt-to-equity ratio of 1.74, suggests limited flexibility for aggressive investment in new growth initiatives. Our model's reverse DCF implies a deeply pessimistic ~-16%/yr free-cash-flow growth sustained for 10 years, far below the actual revenue growth. A sustained period of low single-digit revenue growth or an increase in debt without corresponding profit expansion would confirm the bear case, indicating the company is struggling to expand beyond its existing market.
Horizon
1-3 yr $17.00 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $21.46 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $27.52 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
SBH vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
SBH
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.73
0.83
-0.10
Growth
0.44
0.87
-0.43
Value
0.75
0.76
in line
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · SBH
Trend
-0.1 over 24 daily scores
From 62.5 (Jun 22) → 62.4 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
SBH at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+0.3%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.24
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SBH to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · SBH
$
%
%
Shares to buy
121
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$12.32
25% below $16.42
$ at risk if stopped
$496.71
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH): score, valuation & FAQ
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) is a Specialty Retail company that scores 62.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (A-). On valuation, SBH sits about 60% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is SBH a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores SBH 62.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does SBH score 62.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on value at 74.8 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 44.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SBH earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SBH is measured against Specialty Retail peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is SBH overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $16.42, SBH sits about 60% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 8.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in SBH?
The primary concern for SBH is its anemic growth profile, highlighted by our model's weakest pillar, 'Growth 44', and a meager 1.1% FY YoY revenue growth. This slow top-line expansion, coupled with a significant debt-to-equity ratio of 1.74, suggests limited flexibility for aggressive investment in new growth initiatives. Our model's reverse DCF implies a deeply pessimistic ~-16%/yr free-cash-flow growth sustained for 10 years, far below the actual revenue growth. A sustained period of low single-digit revenue growth or an increase in debt without corresponding profit expansion would confirm the bear case, indicating the company is struggling to expand beyond its existing market.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.