Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

QXO analysis

QXO, Inc.Industrial Distribution. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

QXO
QXO, Inc. · Industrial Distribution
FCF$141mC
Rev+408.3%A
D/E0.57B
P/S1.4xB+
PEG3.19D
32.3Score
$13.47$14.0B
1Y Target$29.29Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$51.24Compound horizon
10Y Target$91.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$141mTTM
C
FCF $141m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+408.3%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +408.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.57
B
D/E 0.57 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/S1.4x
B+
P/S 1.4x — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG3.19
D
PEG 3.19 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 32.3
Quality23.2
Growth100.0
Value14.6
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
51% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value635% aboveest. fair value ~$2
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability10% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-1.6% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Industrial Distribution · market cap $14.0b. Down 51% from 52-week high of $27.61 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +408% — in hypergrowth territory. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $29.29 (implying +117% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -5.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 51% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.30 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $29.29 (17-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $51.24 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $91.57 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

QXO vs the Top Picks average

PillarQXOBook avgDiff
Quality0.230.84-0.61
Growth1.000.84+0.16
Value0.150.78-0.64

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+13.2 over 47 daily scores
From 19.1 (Jun 22) → 32.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-13.5%
90-day change-12.5%
Forward EPS estimate$0.65

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect QXO to earn is materially lower (-12.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
148
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$10.10
25% below $13.47
$ at risk if stopped
$498.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

QXO, Inc. (QXO): score, valuation & FAQ

QXO, Inc. (QXO) is a Industrial Distribution company that scores 32.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/S (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, QXO sits about 635% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is QXO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores QXO 32.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of QXO, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does QXO score 32.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). QXO earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/S (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is QXO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $13.47, QXO sits about 635% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in QXO?

Currently unprofitable (margin -5.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 51% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.30 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Industrial Distribution stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →