Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PTC analysis

PTC Inc.Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PTC
PTC Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$935mC+
Rev+19.5%B+
D/E0.46B
P/E14.9xA-
PEG1.43B
70.6Score
$154.27$16.7B
1Y Target$173.35Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$253.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$376.50Long-dated conviction
FCF$935mTTM
C+
FCF $935m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+19.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +19.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.46
B
D/E 0.46 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E14.9x
A-
P/E 14.9 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.43
B
PEG 1.43 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 70.6
Quality86.4
Growth59.4
Value68.6
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
29% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value6% aboveest. fair value ~$145
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~9% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability38% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.4% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
PTC’s ThingWorx IoT platform is cementing a recurring SaaS moat that fuels a high‑margin growth engine – revenue is climbing 19.5% YoY, profit margins sit at a stellar 41.4%, and free cash flow tops $935 m while the stock trades at a modest PE 14.3x. Our Bull Rankings model flags a Quality score of 86 (the strongest pillar), confirming the business’s pricing power and cash conversion, and the 6% reverse‑DCF implied FCF growth is well below the actual revenue trajectory, leaving ample upside. The thesis rests on ThingWorx’s expanding industrial IoT footprint continuing to compound earnings.
Moat
Windchill’s PLM suite locks large manufacturers into a data‑rich ecosystem where switching costs are prohibitive, while ServiceMax’s field‑service SaaS deepens stickiness across the product lifecycle. The resulting high‑ROE of 35.3% stems from pricing power in these mission‑critical solutions, a moat that competitors can’t replicate quickly without massive integration effort.
Risk
A slowdown in industrial IoT spend would blunt ThingWorx’s growth, and the market already prices optimism – the reverse‑DCF assumes only 6% yr FCF growth versus the current 19.5% revenue growth. If top‑line growth falls below 12%, the 52‑week high bias and a PE that, while modest, is stretched relative to peers could trigger a sell‑off. Confirmation would be a quarterly revenue growth miss and a dip in FCF conversion.
Horizon
1-3 yr $173.35 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $253.80 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $376.50 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PTC vs the Top Picks average

PillarPTCBook avgDiff
Quality0.860.84+0.03
Growth0.590.84-0.24
Value0.690.78-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.6 over 47 daily scores
From 75.2 (Jun 22) → 70.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+3.0%
90-day change+2.9%
Forward EPS estimate$8.89

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PTC to earn is drifting higher (+2.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,851
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$115.70
25% below $154.27
$ at risk if stopped
$462.81
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

PTC Inc. (PTC): score, valuation & FAQ

PTC Inc. (PTC) is a Software - Application company that scores 70.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PTC sits about 6% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PTC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PTC 70.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PTC Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PTC score 70.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PTC earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PTC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $154.27, PTC sits about 6% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.9x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PTC?

A slowdown in industrial IoT spend would blunt ThingWorx’s growth, and the market already prices optimism – the reverse‑DCF assumes only 6% yr FCF growth versus the current 19.5% revenue growth. If top‑line growth falls below 12%, the 52‑week high bias and a PE that, while modest, is stretched relative to peers could trigger a sell‑off. Confirmation would be a quarterly revenue growth miss and a dip in FCF conversion.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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