Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

PRGS analysis

Progress Software CorporationSoftware - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

PRGS
Progress Software Corporation · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$305mC
Rev+15.5%B+
D/E2.62D
P/E21.5xB+
PEG1.40B
74.5Score
$44.36$1.8B
1Y Target$55.80Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$81.70Compound horizon
10Y Target$121.19Long-dated conviction
FCF$305mTTM
C
FCF $305m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+15.5%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +15.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E2.62
D
D/E 2.62 — most levered decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
P/E21.5x
B+
P/E 21.5 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.40
B
PEG 1.40 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 74.5
Quality67.1
Growth84.4
Value73.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value65% belowest. fair value ~$126
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-21% a year for the next decade — vs the ~2% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability35% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.6% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Progress Software’s AI‑first Agentic RAG platform is unlocking a new wave of high‑margin digital experiences, and that engine is already delivering 15.5% YoY revenue growth, a healthy 8.9% profit margin, and a market cap of $1.8B that trades at a modest PE of 20.9. Our Bull Rankings model flags Growth at 90, the strongest pillar, confirming that the business is compounding on AI‑driven demand. With management actively buying back shares, the upside hinges on the AI adoption tailwind continuing to compound earnings.
Moat
The Chef DevOps automation suite and DataDirect secure data connectivity lock enterprise customers into a tightly integrated stack, creating costly migration hurdles and enabling Progress to command pricing power that lifts ROE to 17.6%. This stickiness, combined with the specialized Agentic RAG service, gives the company a defensible moat that competitors can’t replicate overnight.
Risk
The stock assumes a steep -22% annual free‑cash‑flow growth over the next decade, far outpacing the actual 15.5% revenue growth and implying unsustainable cash generation; coupled with a debt‑to‑equity of 2.62, any slowdown in AI spend could force margin compression and erode the PE premium. A miss of the consensus 1‑yr target of $53.80 would confirm the valuation is overly optimistic.
Horizon
1-3 yr $55.80 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $81.70 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $121.19 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

PRGS vs the Top Picks average

PillarPRGSBook avgDiff
Quality0.670.84-0.17
Growth0.840.84in line
Value0.730.78-0.05

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.7 over 46 daily scores
From 79.2 (Jun 22) → 74.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.2%
90-day change+2.8%
Forward EPS estimate$6.23

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PRGS to earn is drifting higher (+2.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
45
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$33.27
25% below $44.36
$ at risk if stopped
$499.05
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS): score, valuation & FAQ

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 74.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, PRGS sits about 65% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is PRGS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores PRGS 74.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Progress Software Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does PRGS score 74.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PRGS earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is PRGS overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $44.36, PRGS sits about 65% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 21.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in PRGS?

The stock assumes a steep -22% annual free‑cash‑flow growth over the next decade, far outpacing the actual 15.5% revenue growth and implying unsustainable cash generation; coupled with a debt‑to‑equity of 2.62, any slowdown in AI spend could force margin compression and erode the PE premium. A miss of the consensus 1‑yr target of $53.80 would confirm the valuation is overly optimistic.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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