FCF $234m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+25.6%FY YoYA-
Revenue +25.6% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.47C
D/E 1.47 — more levered than most Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.3xA-
P/E 16.3 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.05A
PEG 0.05 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 87.8
Quality0.68
Growth1.00
Value0.99
Why this score
Durable high returns
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
59% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value66% belowest. fair value ~$54
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Why now
Pagaya’s Decline Monetization platform is rapidly converting rejected loan applications into revenue streams, driving a 25.6% YoY revenue growth while the company trades at a razor‑thin PEG of 0.05 and a modest PE of 16.3x, meaning each dollar of earnings is cheap relative to its growth. Coupled with a solid ROE of 16.3% and $234 m of free cash flow, the compounding engine is the AI‑powered loan‑re‑allocation engine that can scale across U.S. and Israeli lenders. The thesis rests on the platform’s ability to keep expanding its partner network and capture more of the $100 B+ decline‑loan market.
Moat
The moat is the data‑rich, AI‑driven Decline Monetization network, which embeds Pagaya’s scoring models into partner loan origination flows. Once integrated, lenders face high switching costs because the platform learns partner‑specific risk patterns that are not easily replicated, giving Pagaya pricing power and a defensible IP layer around its proprietary algorithms.
Risk
The stock’s extreme beta of 5.34 makes it vulnerable to market swings, and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.47 adds leverage risk if loan‑originations slow. A pullback in credit‑market activity would compress margins and could force the company into higher financing costs, a scenario signaled by the elevated leverage and volatility. A sustained drop in loan‑approval volumes would trigger a sharp price correction, confirming the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $26.50 (10-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $33.46 at ~13% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $42.91 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · PGY
Trend
+0.3 over 9 daily scores
From 87.5 (Jun 22) → 87.8 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · PGY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
109
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$13.70
25% below $18.27
$ at risk if stopped
$497.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (PGY) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 87.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). On valuation, PGY sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is PGY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PGY 87.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PGY score 87.8 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PGY earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is PGY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $18.27, PGY sits about 66% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.3x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PGY?
The stock’s extreme beta of 5.34 makes it vulnerable to market swings, and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.47 adds leverage risk if loan‑originations slow. A pullback in credit‑market activity would compress margins and could force the company into higher financing costs, a scenario signaled by the elevated leverage and volatility. A sustained drop in loan‑approval volumes would trigger a sharp price correction, confirming the bear case.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.