Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
PEGA
Pegasystems Inc. · Software - Application
65.2Score
$35.65Oct 9 close$5.9B
1Y Target$41.43Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$60.66Compound horizon
10Y Target$89.98Long-dated conviction
FCF$493mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $493m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+3.6%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +3.6% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.13B+
D/E 0.13 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E20.0xB+
P/E 20.0 — below the Technology median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.99C
PEG 2.99 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 65.2
Quality91.2
Growth56.0
Value54.2
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
48% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value32% belowest. fair value ~$52
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~7% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability95% · Agross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC24.3% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $5.9b. Down 48% from 52-week high of $68.10 — deep drawdown territory. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $41.43 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 58% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 152% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $41.43 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $60.66 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $89.98 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
PEGA vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PEGA
Book avg
Diff
Quality
91
83
+8
Growth
56
89
-33
Value
54
76
-22
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · PEGA
Trend
-8.7 over 82 daily scores
From 73.9 (Jun 22) → 65.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
PEGA at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-1.6%
90-day change
-14.4%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.60
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PEGA to earn is materially lower (-14.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · PEGA
$
%
%
Shares to buy
56
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$26.74
25% below $35.65
$ at risk if stopped
$499.10
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA): score, valuation & FAQ
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) is a Software - Application company that scores 65.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, PEGA sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is PEGA a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PEGA 65.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Pegasystems Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PEGA score 65.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 91.2 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 54.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. PEGA earns its highest marks on D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so PEGA is measured against Software - Application peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is PEGA overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $35.65, PEGA sits about 32% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 20.0x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PEGA?
Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.