D/E 0.12 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E5.9xA
P/E 5.9 — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.52est.A-
PEG 0.52 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 79.4
Quality80.0
Growth93.1
Value92.0
Why this score
Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value83% belowest. fair value ~$52
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability15% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
PAGS presents a compelling growth opportunity in the Brazilian financial technology sector, trading at a significant discount to its underlying potential. Our model assigns PAGS a Quality-growth score of 72/100, with its strongest pillar being Growth at 97, reflecting its robust expansion in providing digital banking and payment solutions to individual entrepreneurs and SMEs. With a TTM revenue growth of 17.9% and an exceptionally low P/E of 6.1, the market is severely underpricing its compounding ability and the substantial $979m in free cash flow generated. The crux lies in its continued penetration of the underserved micro-merchant and SME segments with its comprehensive financial ecosystem.
Moat
PagSeguro's durable competitive advantage is rooted in its integrated financial and payment solutions ecosystem, which creates high switching costs for its core customer base of individual entrepreneurs and small to medium-sized companies in Brazil. By offering a comprehensive suite encompassing digital banking, various card types, credit products like working capital loans, and even insurance services, PAGS becomes deeply embedded in its clients' daily operations. This broad, interconnected offering makes it cumbersome and costly for businesses to migrate their entire financial infrastructure to a competitor.
Risk
The primary bear case for PagSeguro revolves around the perceived quality and sustainability of its growth within Brazil's intensely competitive financial services market, a concern echoed by our model's weakest pillar: Quality, scoring 79. Despite strong revenue expansion, the market's deep skepticism is evident, as the Reverse DCF implies an outright decline in free cash flow growth sustained for 10 years, suggesting significant doubts about long-term profitability or market share. Furthermore, the company's high Beta of 1.28 indicates a heightened sensitivity to economic fluctuations, posing a risk in a volatile emerging market. A sustained deceleration in the adoption of its credit products or a contraction in its profit margin of 11.3% would confirm the bear thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $11.59 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $14.63 at ~11% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $18.76 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
PAGS vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
PAGS
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.80
0.84
-0.04
Growth
0.93
0.84
+0.09
Value
0.92
0.78
+0.14
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · PAGS
Trend
+7.4 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 79.4 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-2.4%
90-day change
-5.6%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.84
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect PAGS to earn is materially lower (-5.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · PAGS
$
%
%
Shares to buy
232
Position size
$2,000
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.46
25% below $8.62
$ at risk if stopped
$499.96
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS): score, valuation & FAQ
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 79.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a strong reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, PAGS sits about 83% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.
Is PAGS a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores PAGS 79.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a strong reading. That is driven by P/E (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of PagSeguro Digital Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does PAGS score 79.4 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). PAGS earns its highest marks on P/E (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is PAGS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $8.62, PAGS sits about 83% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. It trades at a 5.9x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in PAGS?
The primary bear case for PagSeguro revolves around the perceived quality and sustainability of its growth within Brazil's intensely competitive financial services market, a concern echoed by our model's weakest pillar: Quality, scoring 79. Despite strong revenue expansion, the market's deep skepticism is evident, as the Reverse DCF implies an outright decline in free cash flow growth sustained for 10 years, suggesting significant doubts about long-term profitability or market share. Furthermore, the company's high Beta of 1.28 indicates a heightened sensitivity to economic fluctuations, posing a risk in a volatile emerging market. A sustained deceleration in the adoption of its credit products or a contraction in its profit margin of 11.3% would confirm the bear thesis.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.