Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

OKTA analysis

Okta, Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Cybersecurity
OKTA
Okta, Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$911mC+
Rev+11.7%B
D/E0.06A-
P/E101.8xD
PEG1.30B
56.3Score
$140.42$24.4B
1Y Target$126.88Analyst consensus · 42 analysts
5Y Target$185.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$275.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$911mTTM
C+
FCF $911m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+11.7%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +11.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.06
A-
D/E 0.06 — less debt than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E101.8x
D
P/E 101.8 — most expensive decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.30
B
PEG 1.30 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.3
Quality0.48
Growth0.86
Value0.43
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value24% aboveest. fair value ~$113
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC1.9% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $24.4b. 11% off the 52-week high of $157.00. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 42 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $126.88 (implying -10% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Trailing P/E 101.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. ROE 4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. AI-native re-pricing — GPT-class models are compressing the cost of features that took years to build; the moat thesis depends on owning the workflow, not just the feature set.
Horizon
1-3 yr $126.88 (42-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $185.76 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $275.57 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-1.4 over 31 daily scores
From 57.7 (Jun 22) → 56.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,966
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$105.31
25% below $140.42
$ at risk if stopped
$491.47
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Okta, Inc. (OKTA): score, valuation & FAQ

Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 56.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, OKTA sits about 24% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is OKTA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores OKTA 56.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Okta, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does OKTA score 56.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). OKTA earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is OKTA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $140.42, OKTA sits about 24% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 101.8x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in OKTA?

Trailing P/E 101.8x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. ROE 4% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. AI-native re-pricing — GPT-class models are compressing the cost of features that took years to build; the moat thesis depends on owning the workflow, not just the feature set.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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