Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CHKP analysis

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. — Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CHKP
Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$1.2bC+
Rev+6.3%C+
D/E0.72C+
P/E13.4xA
PEG1.29B
76.9Score
$130.55$13.3B
1Y Target$146.32Analyst consensus · 31 analysts
5Y Target$184.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$236.91Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM
C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+6.3%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.3% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.72
C+
D/E 0.72 — above the Technology debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E13.4x
A
P/E 13.4 — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.29
B
PEG 1.29 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 76.9
Quality88.7
Growth68.1
Value75.3
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
38% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value31% belowest. fair value ~$190
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability30% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC22.8% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Check Point’s Mesh Network Security, especially its Maestro Hyperscale Firewall, is riding a surge in hybrid‑cloud adoption that is already driving a 6.3% YoY revenue lift; combined with a 38.8% profit margin and a 36.7% ROE, the company is delivering high‑margin, recurring cash flow—$1.2B free cash flow—making it a compelling growth play that will compound earnings as cloud security demand accelerates. The Bull Rankings model’s 76.9/100 quality‑growth score, anchored by a 89 quality pillar, confirms that Check Point’s operational excellence and cash‑flow discipline will sustain this upside. The thesis rests on the continued expansion of hybrid‑cloud security, which is a tailwind that createsthe very high‑margin, high‑cash‑flow profile that Check Point already enjoys.
Moat
Check Point’s Fortress‑grade Firewall and XDR solutions create deep integration across endpoints, browsers, and SaaS apps, generating high switching costs for enterprises that rely on a single vendor for multi‑layer protection. The company’s AI‑powered security management further locks in customers by delivering predictive threat intelligence that competitors cannot replicate quickly, preserving its 36.7% ROE through pricing power in a niche, high‑barrier market.
Risk
The primary threat is the intensifying competition from larger cloud‑security incumbents who can bundle Check Point’s products into broader platform offerings, eroding its 38.8% margin; a 13.2 P/E multiple already prices in aggressive growth expectations, and a 0.72 debt‑to‑equity ratio could tighten if capital needs rise. A sharp slowdown in hybrid‑cloud spend would blunt revenue growth and pressure the 6.3% YoY lift that underpins the bull case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $146.32 (31-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $184.73 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $236.91 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CHKP vs the Top Picks average

PillarCHKPBook avgDiff
Quality0.890.84+0.05
Growth0.680.84-0.16
Value0.750.78-0.03

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · CHKP
Trend
-0.5 over 47 daily scores
From 77.4 (Jun 22) → 76.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.0%
90-day change-1.0%
Forward EPS estimate$11.30

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CHKP to earn is drifting lower (-1.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Position sizing · CHKP
Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,958
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$97.91
25% below $130.55
$ at risk if stopped
$489.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest CHKP developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP): score, valuation & FAQ

Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (CHKP) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 76.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A). On valuation, CHKP sits about 31% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CHKP a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CHKP 76.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Check Point Software Technologies Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CHKP score 76.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CHKP earns its highest marks on P/E (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CHKP overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $130.55, CHKP sits about 31% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.4x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CHKP?

The primary threat is the intensifying competition from larger cloud‑security incumbents who can bundle Check Point’s products into broader platform offerings, eroding its 38.8% margin; a 13.2 P/E multiple already prices in aggressive growth expectations, and a 0.72 debt‑to‑equity ratio could tighten if capital needs rise. A sharp slowdown in hybrid‑cloud spend would blunt revenue growth and pressure the 6.3% YoY lift that underpins the bull case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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