Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NVO analysis

Novo Nordisk A/SDrug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Weight-Loss Drugs
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$4.8bB
Rev+6.4%C+
D/E0.72C+
P/E10.5xA
PEG3.16D
44Score
$44.16$195.3B
1Y Target$47.76Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$60.30Compound horizon
10Y Target$77.34Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.8bTTM · 03/26
B
FCF $4.8b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+6.4%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.4% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.72
C+
D/E 0.72 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E10.5x
A
P/E 10.5 — cheapest decile in Healthcare (≈10th pctile)
PEG3.16
D
PEG 3.16 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 44
Quality0.84
Growth0.49
Value0.24
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Foreign reporter (DKK)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
31% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value226% aboveest. fair value ~$14
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~29% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-4% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability46% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC31.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $195.3b. Down 31% from 52-week high of $64.16 — deep drawdown territory. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $47.76 (implying +8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 33% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 53% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $195.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $47.76 (12-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $60.30 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $77.34 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NVO vs the Top Picks average

PillarNVOBook avgDiff
Quality0.840.83in line
Growth0.490.91-0.42
Value0.240.75-0.51

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.2 over 33 daily scores
From 37.8 (Jun 22) → 44.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
45
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$33.12
25% below $44.16
$ at risk if stopped
$496.86
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): score, valuation & FAQ

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 44 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NVO sits about 226% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 29% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NVO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NVO 44 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Novo Nordisk A/S's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NVO score 44 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NVO earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NVO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $44.16, NVO sits about 226% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 29% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 10.5x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NVO?

Down 31% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Pharmaceuticals stocks by score

All Healthcare rankings →

Analyze another ticker →