Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AZN analysis

AstraZeneca PLCDrug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

AZN
AstraZeneca PLC · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$11.8bA-
Rev+8.6%B
D/E0.72C+
P/E26.1xB
PEG1.42B
75Score
$173.57$269.2B
1Y Target$222.89Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$326.33Compound horizon
10Y Target$484.09Long-dated conviction
FCF$11.8bTTM
A-
FCF $11.8b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+8.6%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.6% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.72
C+
D/E 0.72 — above the Healthcare debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E26.1x
B
P/E 26.1 — near the Healthcare median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.42
B
PEG 1.42 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 75
Quality0.77
Growth0.84
Value0.65
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value21% aboveest. fair value ~$143
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability42% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.9% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $269.2b. 18% off the 52-week high of $212.71. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $222.89 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 115% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $222.89 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $326.33 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $484.09 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+7.7 over 14 daily scores
From 67.3 (Jun 22) → 75.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,909
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$130.18
25% below $173.57
$ at risk if stopped
$477.33
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN): score, valuation & FAQ

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 75 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-). On valuation, AZN sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).

Is AZN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AZN 75 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of AstraZeneca PLC's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AZN score 75 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AZN earns its highest marks on FCF (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AZN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $173.57, AZN sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 26.1x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AZN?

Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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