Eli Lilly and Company — Drug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$10.4bA-
Rev+47.4%A
D/E1.39C
P/E42.2xC
PEG1.54C+
70.4Score
$1,181.87$1.1T
1Y Target$1,243Analyst consensus · 28 analysts
5Y Target$1,821Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,701Long-dated conviction
FCF$10.4bTTM · 03/26A-
FCF $10.4b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+47.4%TTM YoYA
Revenue +47.4% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.39C
D/E 1.39 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E42.2xC
P/E 42.2 — expensive vs Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.54C+
PEG 1.54 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 70.4
Quality0.73
Growth1.00
Value0.48
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value166% aboveest. fair value ~$444
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~39% a year for the next decade — vs the ~24% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability51% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $1.1T. 5% off the 52-week high of $1249.45. Revenue growing +47% — in hypergrowth territory. 28 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $1,243 (implying +5% upside).
Moat
Net margin 35% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 81% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $1.1T market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Trailing P/E 42x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 14.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,243 (28-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,821 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $2,701 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · LLY
Trend
+0.8 over 18 daily scores
From 69.6 (Jun 22) → 70.4 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · LLY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,182
2.4% of portfolio
Stop price
$886.40
25% below $1,182
$ at risk if stopped
$295.47
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): score, valuation & FAQ
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 70.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and FCF (A-). On valuation, LLY sits about 166% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is LLY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores LLY 70.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Eli Lilly and Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does LLY score 70.4 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LLY earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and FCF (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $1181.87, LLY sits about 166% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 39% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 42.2x× P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in LLY?
Trailing P/E 42x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 14.6x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.