Eli Lilly and Company · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$13.6bA-
Rev+49.6%A
D/E1.62C
P/E40.0xC+
PEG1.55C+
70.4Score
$1,176.10$1.0T
1Y Target$1,315Analyst consensus · 29 analysts
5Y Target$1,925Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,856Long-dated conviction
FCF$13.6bTTM · 06/26A-
FCF $13.6b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+49.6%TTM YoYA
Revenue +49.6% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.62C
D/E 1.62 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E40.0xC+
P/E 40.0 — above the Healthcare median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.55C+
PEG 1.55 — modest premium; above fair value
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 70.4
Quality73.1
Growth97.0
Value49.3
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value99% aboveest. fair value ~$590
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~32% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability47% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
The single most compelling reason to own LLY is the runaway growth of its GLP‑1 obesity and diabetes franchise – Mounjaro, Trulicity and Zepbound – which is fueling a 49.6% YoY revenue surge and delivering a 33.5% profit margin. Management is converting that top‑line firepower into free cash, evident in a $13.6 B TTM free‑cash‑flow and a market‑cap of $1.1 T that still leaves upside to the consensus 1‑yr target of $1,299.01. The thesis rests on the compounding power of these blockbuster drugs as they expand from diabetes into obesity, a market poised for double‑digit growth for the next decade.
Moat
LLY’s moat stems from its entrenched insulin platform and next‑generation GLP‑1 molecules, which command premium pricing and are protected by extensive patents and a global manufacturing network. The resulting pricing power drives an extraordinary 78.8% ROE, far above peers, and creates a switching cost for patients and providers who rely on Lilly’s proven delivery systems and clinical data.
Risk
The bear case centers on the lofty valuation: a forward P/E of 41 implies investors are already pricing in sustained double‑digit growth, yet the reverse‑DCF suggests the market expects a 32% annual free‑cash‑flow expansion—well above the historical 49.6% revenue growth and likely unsustainable once the GLP‑1 wave flattens. A slip in growth or a margin compression, combined with a debt‑to‑equity of 1.62, could force the stock back toward its 52‑week low of $644.50, confirming the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,315 (29-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $1,925 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $2,856 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
LLY vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
LLY
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.73
0.83
-0.10
Growth
0.97
0.87
+0.10
Value
0.49
0.76
-0.27
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · LLY
Trend
+0.8 over 49 daily scores
From 69.6 (Jun 22) → 70.4 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
LLY at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+4.8%
90-day change
+6.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$47.23
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LLY to earn is materially higher (+6.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · LLY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,176
2.4% of portfolio
Stop price
$882.07
25% below $1,176
$ at risk if stopped
$294.02
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY): score, valuation & FAQ
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 70.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and FCF (A-). On valuation, LLY sits about 99% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is LLY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores LLY 70.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Eli Lilly and Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does LLY score 70.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 97.0 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 49.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. LLY earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and FCF (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so LLY is measured against Drug Manufacturers - General peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is LLY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $1176.10, LLY sits about 99% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 40.0x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in LLY?
The bear case centers on the lofty valuation: a forward P/E of 41 implies investors are already pricing in sustained double‑digit growth, yet the reverse‑DCF suggests the market expects a 32% annual free‑cash‑flow expansion—well above the historical 49.6% revenue growth and likely unsustainable once the GLP‑1 wave flattens. A slip in growth or a margin compression, combined with a debt‑to‑equity of 1.62, could force the stock back toward its 52‑week low of $644.50, confirming the downside.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.