Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NBIX analysis

Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FCF$831mC+
Rev+42.2%A
D/E0.14A-
P/E24.1xB
PEG0.44A
97Score
$156.70
1Y Target$192.06Near-term target
5Y Target$209.70Compound horizon
10Y Target$267.67Long-dated conviction
FCF$831mTTM · 03/26
C+
FCF $831m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+42.2%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +42.2% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.14
A-
D/E 0.14 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E24.1x
B
P/E 24.1 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG0.44
A
PEG 0.44 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · market cap $15.8b. 4% off the 52-week high of $162.39. Revenue growing +42% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.44 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 28 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $192.06 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
Net margin 22% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 124% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $192.06 (28-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $209.70 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $267.67 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,880
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$117.52
25% below $156.70
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

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