FCF $3.6b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+5.9%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +5.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.95C+
D/E 0.95 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E17.6xA-
P/E 17.6 — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG3.75D
PEG 3.75 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 46.2
Quality0.69
Growth0.42
Value0.34
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value41% aboveest. fair value ~$394
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~12% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability58% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $78.7b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $774.00 — deep drawdown territory. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $643.62 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
ROE 25% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $78.7b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $643.62 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $942.32 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,398 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
NOC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
NOC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.69
0.83
-0.13
Growth
0.42
0.91
-0.49
Value
0.34
0.75
-0.41
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · NOC
Trend
+2.6 over 33 daily scores
From 43.6 (Jun 22) → 46.2 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · NOC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
3
Position size
$1,661
3.3% of portfolio
Stop price
$415.33
25% below $553.77
$ at risk if stopped
$415.33
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 46.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, NOC sits about 41% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is NOC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores NOC 46.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Northrop Grumman Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does NOC score 46.2 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NOC earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is NOC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $553.77, NOC sits about 41% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 17.6x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in NOC?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.