Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NGG analysis

National Grid Transco, PLC NatiUtilities - Regulated Electric. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NGG
National Grid Transco, PLC Nati · Utilities - Regulated Electric
FCF
Rev-7.4%D
D/E1.21B+
P/E17.9xB+
PEG1.00B+
57.6Score
$79.76$80.2B
1Y Target$90.89Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$133.07Compound horizon
10Y Target$197.40Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev-7.4%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -7.4% — meaningful contraction
D/E1.21
B+
D/E 1.21 — below the Utilities debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E17.9x
B+
P/E 17.9 — below the Utilities median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.00
B+
PEG 1.00 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.6
Quality58.3
Growth43.5
Value87.7
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
  • Foreign reporter (GBP)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
ROIC4.7% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Utilities - Regulated Electric · market cap $80.2b. 16% off the 52-week high of $94.64. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $90.89 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. $80.2b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 4.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $90.89 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $133.07 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $197.40 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NGG vs the Top Picks average

PillarNGGBook avgDiff
Quality0.580.84-0.26
Growth0.440.84-0.40
Value0.880.78+0.09

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.2 over 45 daily scores
From 62.8 (Jun 22) → 57.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+1.0%
Forward EPS estimate$6.60

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NGG to earn is drifting higher (+1.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$59.82
25% below $79.76
$ at risk if stopped
$498.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

National Grid Transco, PLC Nati (NGG): score, valuation & FAQ

National Grid Transco, PLC Nati (NGG) is a Utilities - Regulated Electric company that scores 57.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+), while Rev (D) rate weaker.

Is NGG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NGG 57.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of National Grid Transco, PLC Nati's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NGG score 57.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NGG earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), P/E (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by Rev (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NGG overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for NGG — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in NGG?

Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Dividend payout 71% of earnings on a 4.0% yield — distribution coverage is thin; one earnings stumble could force a dividend cut. ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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