★
VST
Vistra Corp · Utilities
FCF$1.8bC+
Rev+37.9%A
D/E3.46D
P/E22.0xB
PEG0.58A-
80Score
$156.271Y Target$168.77Near-term target
5Y Target$209.12Compound horizon
10Y Target$266.93Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.8bTTM · 03/26C+
FCF $1.8b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+37.9%TTM YoYA
Revenue +37.9% — hypergrowth, top decile · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E3.46totalD
D/E 3.46 — very high leverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E22.0xB
P/E 22.0 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG0.58proxyA-
PEG 0.58 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Utilities · market cap $45.4b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $219.82 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +38% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.58 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 43% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
D/E 3.46 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.43 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $168.77 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $209.12 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $266.93 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Position sizing · VST
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,875
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$117.20
25% below $156.27
$ at risk
$500.00
1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.