Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NAVN analysis

Navan, Inc.Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NAVN
Navan, Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$33mC-
Rev+30.8%A
D/E0.14B+
P/S11.1xC
PEG
33.8Score
$30.58$7.8B
1Y Target$29.93Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$52.35Compound horizon
10Y Target$93.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$33mTTM
C-
FCF $33m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+30.8%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +30.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.14
B+
D/E 0.14 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/S11.1x
C
P/S 11.1x — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 33.8
Quality29.8
Growth93.8
Value13.8
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value911% aboveest. fair value ~$3
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-11.4% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Navan’s AI‑powered travel and expense platform is rapidly winning enterprise finance and HR spend, driving a 30.8% MRQ YoY revenue growth while expanding its addressable market. The model’s strongest pillar, Growth (94), validates that the AI‑driven booking and policy‑enforcement suite can keep compounding, especially as corporate travel rebounds and firms demand automated expense reconciliation. With a market cap of $7.8 b and free cash flow of $33 m, the upside hinges on sustaining this top‑line momentum—if Navan can keep the 30%+ growth rate, the thesis holds.
Moat
The moat lies in Navan’s integrated AI travel‑booking, payments, and expense‑reconciliation engine, which locks in finance and HR departments through policy‑enforced workflows that are costly to replace. This end‑to‑end automation creates high switching costs for corporate customers, and the OpenTable partnership deepens its value proposition for business travel planning, cementing a defensible position against generic expense tools.
Risk
The bear case centers on the crushing -50.9% profit margin and -28.9% ROE, indicating the business is still far from profitability and may burn cash if growth stalls. A slowdown in corporate travel spend or a superior AI offering from a larger SaaS competitor could force margin compression, and the model’s weak Value pillar (14) flags that the current price already embeds an unrealistic >60% annual FCF growth assumption. A breach of the 52‑week low ($8.11) would confirm the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $29.93 (15-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $52.35 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $93.57 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NAVN vs the Top Picks average

PillarNAVNBook avgDiff
Quality0.300.83-0.54
Growth0.940.87+0.07
Value0.140.76-0.62

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-6.0 over 51 daily scores
From 39.8 (Jun 22) → 33.8 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

NAVN at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD33.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY29.8GROWTH93.8VALUE13.8Reverse-DCF · Price implies 60%+ growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$9.2FAIR-VALUE RANGE$30.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$3 · price $30.6 is 90% above it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$30.6$8.1 LOWHIGH $30.9Trading near its 52-week high ($8.1–$30.9).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+47%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+5.9%
Forward EPS estimate$0.38

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NAVN to earn is materially higher (+5.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
65
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$22.93
25% below $30.58
$ at risk if stopped
$496.92
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Navan, Inc. (NAVN): score, valuation & FAQ

Navan, Inc. (NAVN) is a Software - Application company that scores 33.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, NAVN sits about 911% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is NAVN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NAVN 33.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Navan, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NAVN score 33.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 93.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 13.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. NAVN earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so NAVN is measured against Software - Application peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is NAVN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $30.58, NAVN sits about 911% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NAVN?

The bear case centers on the crushing -50.9% profit margin and -28.9% ROE, indicating the business is still far from profitability and may burn cash if growth stalls. A slowdown in corporate travel spend or a superior AI offering from a larger SaaS competitor could force margin compression, and the model’s weak Value pillar (14) flags that the current price already embeds an unrealistic >60% annual FCF growth assumption. A breach of the 52‑week low ($8.11) would confirm the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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