Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MRK analysis

Merck & Co., Inc.Drug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Pharma
MRK
Merck & Co., Inc. · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$16.1bA-
Rev+4.6%C+
D/E1.28C
P/E121.5xD
PEG10.47D
37.3Score
$150.66$371.7B
1Y Target$147.77Analyst consensus · 26 analysts
5Y Target$216.35Compound horizon
10Y Target$320.94Long-dated conviction
FCF$16.1bTTM
A-
FCF $16.1b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+4.6%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.6% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.28
C
D/E 1.28 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E121.5x
D
P/E 121.5 — most expensive decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
PEG10.47
D
PEG 10.47 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 37.3
Quality64.8
Growth48.2
Value16.6
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value1% belowest. fair value ~$153
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability37% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $371.7b. Trading near 52-week high of $154.49 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $147.77 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong. $371.7b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate. Pharma moat is patent runway + pipeline depth — a single approved molecule funds the next generation of bets. Late-stage trials carry binary readouts that swing valuation 30%+.
Risk
Trailing P/E 121.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $147.77 (26-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $216.35 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $320.94 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MRK vs the Top Picks average

PillarMRKBook avgDiff
Quality0.650.84-0.19
Growth0.480.87-0.39
Value0.170.76-0.59

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.0 over 46 daily scores
From 40.3 (Jun 22) → 37.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.2%
90-day change-0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$9.54

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MRK to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,959
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$113.00
25% below $150.66
$ at risk if stopped
$489.64
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): score, valuation & FAQ

Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 37.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), while P/E (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MRK sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MRK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MRK 37.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Merck & Co., Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MRK score 37.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MRK earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), and is held back by P/E (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MRK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $150.66, MRK sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 121.5x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MRK?

Trailing P/E 121.5x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 4.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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