Bull Rankings model

The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) stock analysis

Specialty Industrial Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
MIDD
The Middleby Corporation · Specialty Industrial Machinery
40.4Score
$105.95Oct 9 close$4.8B
1Y Target$155.67Analyst consensus · 9 analysts
5Y Target$272.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$486.58Long-dated conviction
FCF$482mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $482m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+1.6%FY YoY
C
Revenue +1.6% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.91
C+
D/E 0.91 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S*1.4x
B+
P/S 1.4x — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.51
C+
PEG 1.51 — modest premium; above fair value

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 40.4
Quality64.8
Growth23.1
Value44.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
29% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value11% belowest. fair value ~$119
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 0% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~2% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Specialty Industrial Machinery · market cap $4.8b. Down 29% from 52-week high of $148.55 — deep drawdown territory. 9 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $155.67 (implying +47% upside).
Moat
ROE 11% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 151% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -13.9%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $155.67 (9-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $272.26 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $486.58 — return distribution heavily skewed.

MIDD vs the Top Picks average

PillarMIDDBook avgDiff
Quality6583-18
Growth2389-66
Value4476-32

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-16.3 over 82 daily scores
From 56.7 (Jun 22) → 40.4 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

MIDD at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD40.4/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY64.8GROWTH23.1VALUE44.0Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$115$122FAIR-VALUE RANGE$106PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$119 · price $106 is 11% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$106LOW $89.2HIGH $149Trading at the 28th percentile of its 52-week range ($89.2–$149).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100MIDD 40.4Ranks above 35% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change-28.1%
Forward EPS estimate$7.80

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MIDD to earn is materially lower (-28.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,907
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$79.46
25% below $105.95
$ at risk if stopped
$476.78
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The Middleby Corporation (MIDD): score, valuation & FAQ

The Middleby Corporation (MIDD) is a Specialty Industrial Machinery company that scores 40.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (B+). On valuation, MIDD sits about 11% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 0% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is MIDD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MIDD 40.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of The Middleby Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MIDD score 40.4 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 64.8 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 23.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. MIDD earns its highest marks on P/S (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so MIDD is measured against Specialty Industrial Machinery peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is MIDD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $105.95, MIDD sits about 11% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 0% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MIDD?

Currently unprofitable (margin -13.9%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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