Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MDB analysis

MongoDB, Inc.Software - Infrastructure. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Cloud & SaaS
MDB
MongoDB, Inc. · Software - Infrastructure
FCF$591mC+
Rev+23.6%A-
D/E0.02A
P/S12.9xC
PEG1.67C+
54.1Score
$416.67$33.5B
1Y Target$396.21Analyst consensus · 36 analysts
5Y Target$692.98Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,238Long-dated conviction
FCF$591mTTM
C+
FCF $591m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+23.6%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +23.6% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.02
A
D/E 0.02 — least levered decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
P/S12.9x
C
P/S 12.9x — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.67
C+
PEG 1.67 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.1
Quality0.45
Growth1.00
Value0.35
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
6% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value287% aboveest. fair value ~$108
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~50% a year for the next decade — vs the ~20% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability51% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-2.7% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $33.5b. 6% off the 52-week high of $444.72. Revenue growing +24%, comfortably above the S&P median. 36 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $396.21 (implying -5% upside).
Moat
Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -1.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 12.9x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $396.21 (36-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $692.98 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $1,238 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MDB vs the Top Picks average

PillarMDBBook avgDiff
Quality0.450.83-0.38
Growth1.000.92+0.08
Value0.350.75-0.40

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.8 over 37 daily scores
From 54.9 (Jun 22) → 54.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,667
3.3% of portfolio
Stop price
$312.50
25% below $416.67
$ at risk if stopped
$416.67
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB): score, valuation & FAQ

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is a Software - Infrastructure company that scores 54.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and Rev (A-). On valuation, MDB sits about 287% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MDB a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MDB 54.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of MongoDB, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MDB score 54.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MDB earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MDB overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $416.67, MDB sits about 287% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 50% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MDB?

Currently unprofitable (margin -1.1%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Beta 1.54 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. P/S 12.9x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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