Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

LRCX analysis

Lam Research CorporationSemiconductor Equipment & Materials. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Semiconductors
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
FCF$4.9bB
Rev+26.0%A-
D/E0.33B
P/E54.6xC
PEG1.43B
57.0Score
$314.00$392.9B
1Y Target$371.35Analyst consensus · 31 analysts
5Y Target$543.70Compound horizon
10Y Target$806.54Long-dated conviction
FCF$4.9bTTM
B
FCF $4.9b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+26.0%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +26.0% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.33
B
D/E 0.33 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E54.6x
C
P/E 54.6 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG1.43
B
PEG 1.43 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57
Quality85.2
Growth83.3
Value26.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value517% aboveest. fair value ~$51
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~22% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability50% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC38.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Lam’s dominance in advanced deposition equipment—especially its ALTUS tungsten/metallization line and SABRE copper‑damascene tools—is fueling a 26% YoY revenue growth while delivering a 31.3% profit margin and a staggering ROE of 58.3%. Those margins translate into $4.9 B of free cash flow, giving the company the cash to raise its dividend and reinvest in next‑gen process tools. The thesis rests on the compounding power of these high‑margin product cycles that should keep the growth engine humming for years to come.
Moat
Lam’s moat comes from the deep integration of its deposition platforms—ALTUS, SABRE, SPEED, Striker and VECTOR—into the fab lines of the world’s leading chipmakers, creating switching costs that are hard to overcome. The 58.3% ROE reflects pricing power derived from being the go‑to supplier for critical layers in advanced nodes, where customers cannot afford to substitute away from Lam’s proven technology without risking yield loss.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty P/E of 54.7 and a beta of 1.86, implying market expectations of >60% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade—far above the actual 26% revenue growth rate. If the semiconductor cycle stalls or fab spending contracts, the valuation premium evaporates, and the high multiple will crush returns. A sustained slowdown in fab capex would be the trigger that validates this bearish view.
Horizon
1-3 yr $371.35 (31-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $543.70 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $806.54 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

LRCX vs the Top Picks average

PillarLRCXBook avgDiff
Quality0.850.84in line
Growth0.830.84in line
Value0.260.78-0.52

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.7 over 47 daily scores
From 50.3 (Jun 22) → 57.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.6%
90-day change+4.8%
Forward EPS estimate$11.56

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LRCX to earn is drifting higher (+4.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,884
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$235.50
25% below $314.00
$ at risk if stopped
$471.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX): score, valuation & FAQ

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is a Semiconductor Equipment & Materials company that scores 57 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-). On valuation, LRCX sits about 517% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is LRCX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LRCX 57 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Lam Research Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LRCX score 57 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LRCX earns its highest marks on Rev (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is LRCX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $314.00, LRCX sits about 517% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 54.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in LRCX?

The stock trades at a lofty P/E of 54.7 and a beta of 1.86, implying market expectations of >60% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade—far above the actual 26% revenue growth rate. If the semiconductor cycle stalls or fab spending contracts, the valuation premium evaporates, and the high multiple will crush returns. A sustained slowdown in fab capex would be the trigger that validates this bearish view.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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