Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

KTOS analysis

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Defense & Drones
KTOS
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
FCF-$133mF
Rev+21.8%A-
D/E0.05A
P/S6.9xC
PEG36.41D
23.4Score
$51.90$9.7B
1Y Target$109.33Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$191.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$341.76Long-dated conviction
FCF-$133mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$133m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+21.8%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +21.8% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.05
A
D/E 0.05 — least levered decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
P/S6.9x
C
P/S 6.9x — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG36.41
D
PEG 36.41 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 23.4
Quality0.27
Growth0.94
Value0.02
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
61% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability8% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC0.5% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $9.7b. Down 61% from 52-week high of $134.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +22%, comfortably above the S&P median. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $109.33 (implying +111% upside).
Moat
Higher-variance name — the moat signals on the quantitative card are modest, so the durability case rests on execution (turning current growth into durable earnings power) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than an entrenched competitive position.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$133m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 61% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $109.33 (21-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $191.22 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $341.76 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

KTOS vs the Top Picks average

PillarKTOSBook avgDiff
Quality0.270.83-0.55
Growth0.940.91+0.03
Value0.020.75-0.72

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+0.2 over 34 daily scores
From 23.2 (Jun 22) → 23.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
38
Position size
$1,972
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$38.92
25% below $51.90
$ at risk if stopped
$493.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS): score, valuation & FAQ

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 23.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A) and Rev (A-), while PEG (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is KTOS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores KTOS 23.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A) and Rev (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does KTOS score 23.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). KTOS earns its highest marks on D/E (A) and Rev (A-), and is held back by PEG (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is KTOS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for KTOS — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in KTOS?

Free cash flow is negative (-$133m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Down 61% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 2.1% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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