Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

JNJ analysis

Johnson & JohnsonDrug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Pharma
JNJ
Johnson & Johnson · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$22.2bA
Rev+8.1%B
D/E0.58B
P/E31.3xB
PEG4.73D
45.7Score
$273.04$658.0B
1Y Target$272.50Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$398.97Compound horizon
10Y Target$591.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$22.2bTTM
A
FCF $22.2b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air
Rev+8.1%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.1% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.58
B
D/E 0.58 — near the Healthcare debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E31.3x
B
P/E 31.3 — near the Healthcare median (≈60th pctile)
PEG4.73
D
PEG 4.73 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 45.7
Quality78.2
Growth69.8
Value17.4
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value67% aboveest. fair value ~$163
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~21% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability33% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.1% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $658.0b. Trading near 52-week high of $276.47 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $272.50 (implying -0% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 25% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 106% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $272.50 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $398.97 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $591.84 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

JNJ vs the Top Picks average

PillarJNJBook avgDiff
Quality0.780.84-0.06
Growth0.700.87-0.17
Value0.170.76-0.58

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-2.5 over 48 daily scores
From 48.2 (Jun 22) → 45.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-4.1%
90-day change-3.2%
Forward EPS estimate$12.31

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect JNJ to earn is drifting lower (-3.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,911
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$204.78
25% below $273.04
$ at risk if stopped
$477.82
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): score, valuation & FAQ

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 45.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, JNJ sits about 67% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is JNJ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores JNJ 45.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Johnson & Johnson's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does JNJ score 45.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). JNJ earns its highest marks on FCF (A), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is JNJ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $273.04, JNJ sits about 67% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 21% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 31.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in JNJ?

Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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