Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GSK analysis

GSK plcDrug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Pharma
GSK
GSK plc · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$7.3bB+
Rev+4.1%C+
D/E1.06C
P/E16.4xA-
PEG104.84D
49.1Score
$51.78$103.7B
1Y Target$58.08Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$85.03Compound horizon
10Y Target$126.14Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.3bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $7.3b — strong cash profile, above most peers · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+4.1%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E1.06
C
D/E 1.06 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E16.4x
A-
P/E 16.4 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG104.84
D
PEG 104.84 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 49.1
Quality85.3
Growth65.0
Value24.9
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Foreign reporter (GBP)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value14% belowest. fair value ~$60
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~2% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability39% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC20.6% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $103.7b. 16% off the 52-week high of $61.70. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $58.08 (implying +12% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 39% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 111% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $58.08 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $85.03 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $126.14 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

GSK vs the Top Picks average

PillarGSKBook avgDiff
Quality0.850.84in line
Growth0.650.87-0.22
Value0.250.76-0.51

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.8 over 46 daily scores
From 47.3 (Jun 22) → 49.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.5%
90-day change-1.8%
Forward EPS estimate$5.14

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GSK to earn is drifting lower (-1.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
38
Position size
$1,968
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$38.84
25% below $51.78
$ at risk if stopped
$491.91
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

GSK plc (GSK): score, valuation & FAQ

GSK plc (GSK) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 49.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-) and FCF (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GSK sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is GSK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GSK 49.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A-) and FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of GSK plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GSK score 49.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GSK earns its highest marks on P/E (A-) and FCF (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GSK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $51.78, GSK sits about 14% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.4x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GSK?

Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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