Bull Rankings model

Graham Holdings Company (GHC) stock analysis

Conglomerates. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
GHC
Graham Holdings Company · Conglomerates
53.3Score
$1,173.16Oct 9 close$5.0B
1Y Target$1,267Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$1,600Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,051Long-dated conviction
FCF$275mTTM · 12/25
C
FCF $275m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 12/25.
Rev+2.5%FY YoY
C
Revenue +2.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.30
A-
D/E 0.30 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E9.5x
A
P/E 9.5 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG4.04
D
PEG 4.04 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 53.3
Quality53.4
Growth54.3
Value52.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
7% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value4% belowest. fair value ~$1220
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 2% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC3.4% · Creturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Conglomerates · market cap $5.0b. 7% off the 52-week high of $1262.35.
Moat
ROE 12% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,267 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $1,600 at ~6% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $2,051 if the moat survives secular pressure.

GHC vs the Top Picks average

PillarGHCBook avgDiff
Quality5383-30
Growth5489-35
Value5276-24

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+16.3 over 80 daily scores
From 37.0 (Jun 22) → 53.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

GHC at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD53.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY53.4GROWTH54.3VALUE52.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~2% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$1192$1241FAIR-VALUE RANGE$1173PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$1220 · price $1173 is 4% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+24%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$1173LOW $930HIGH $1262Trading at the 73rd percentile of its 52-week range ($930–$1262).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$67.00

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GHC to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,173
2.3% of portfolio
Stop price
$879.87
25% below $1,173
$ at risk if stopped
$293.29
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Graham Holdings Company (GHC): score, valuation & FAQ

Graham Holdings Company (GHC) is a Conglomerates company that scores 53.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and D/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GHC sits about 4% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 2% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is GHC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GHC 53.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Graham Holdings Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GHC score 53.3 on Bull Rankings?

It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 53.4, growth 54.3, value 52.2 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. GHC earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GHC is measured against Conglomerates peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is GHC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $1173.16, GHC sits about 4% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 2% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 9.5x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GHC?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Conglomerates stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →