Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GHC analysis

Graham Holdings CompanyConglomerates. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

GHC
Graham Holdings Company · Conglomerates
FCF$275mC
Rev+2.5%C
D/E0.30A-
P/E9.8xA
PEG4.04D
39.7Score
$1,210.26$5.1B
1Y Target$1,307Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$1,650Compound horizon
10Y Target$2,116Long-dated conviction
FCF$275mTTM
C
FCF $275m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+2.5%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +2.5% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.30
A-
D/E 0.30 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E9.8x
A
P/E 9.8 — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG4.04
D
PEG 4.04 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 39.7
Quality0.50
Growth0.35
Value0.35
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value14% aboveest. fair value ~$1063
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-3% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC3.4% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Conglomerates · market cap $5.1b. 4% off the 52-week high of $1262.35.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $1,307 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $1,650 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $2,116 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

GHC vs the Top Picks average

PillarGHCBook avgDiff
Quality0.500.83-0.32
Growth0.350.91-0.55
Value0.350.75-0.39

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.7 over 32 daily scores
From 37.0 (Jun 22) → 39.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,210
2.4% of portfolio
Stop price
$907.69
25% below $1,210
$ at risk if stopped
$302.56
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Graham Holdings Company (GHC): score, valuation & FAQ

Graham Holdings Company (GHC) is a Conglomerates company that scores 39.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and D/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GHC sits about 14% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is GHC a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GHC 39.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Graham Holdings Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GHC score 39.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GHC earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GHC overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $1210.26, GHC sits about 14% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 9.8x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GHC?

ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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