Specialty Industrial Machinery. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
GGG
Graco Inc. · Specialty Industrial Machinery
68.0Score
$78.21Oct 9 close$12.7B
1Y Target$91.29Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$133.65Compound horizon
10Y Target$198.26Long-dated conviction
FCF$629mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $629m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+5.8%FY YoYC+
Revenue +5.8% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.02A
D/E 0.02 — least levered decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
P/E24.6xB
P/E 24.6 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.34C
PEG 2.34 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 68
Quality93.9
Growth59.6
Value56.2
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value16% aboveest. fair value ~$67
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~6% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Specialty Industrial Machinery · market cap $12.7b. 18% off the 52-week high of $95.69. 7 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $91.29 (implying +17% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 21% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 118% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $91.29 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $133.65 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $198.26 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
GGG vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
GGG
Book avg
Diff
Quality
94
83
+11
Growth
60
89
-29
Value
56
76
-20
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · GGG
Trend
+3.6 over 80 daily scores
From 64.4 (Jun 22) → 68.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
GGG at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.4%
90-day change
+3.5%
Forward EPS estimate
$3.50
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GGG to earn is drifting higher (+3.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · GGG
$
%
%
Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,955
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$58.66
25% below $78.21
$ at risk if stopped
$488.81
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Graco Inc. (GGG): score, valuation & FAQ
Graco Inc. (GGG) is a Specialty Industrial Machinery company that scores 68 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A). On valuation, GGG sits about 16% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is GGG a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores GGG 68 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Graco Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does GGG score 68 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 93.9 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 56.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GGG earns its highest marks on D/E (A). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GGG is measured against Specialty Industrial Machinery peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is GGG overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $78.21, GGG sits about 16% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 24.6x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in GGG?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.