Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

FTDR analysis

Frontdoor, Inc.Personal Services. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

FTDR
Frontdoor, Inc. · Personal Services
FCF$386mC
Rev+12.1%B+
D/E5.21D
P/E21.0xB
PEG2.38C
63.3Score
$73.63$5.2B
1Y Target$75.75Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$110.91Compound horizon
10Y Target$164.52Long-dated conviction
FCF$386mTTM
C
FCF $386m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+12.1%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.1% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E5.21
D
D/E 5.21 — most levered decile in Consumer Cyclical (≈95th pctile)
P/E21.0x
B
P/E 21.0 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.38
C
PEG 2.38 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 63.3
Quality0.72
Growth0.83
Value0.42
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value4% aboveest. fair value ~$71
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~9% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability54% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
Why now
Personal Services · market cap $5.2b. 9% off the 52-week high of $80.73. Revenue growing +12%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $75.75 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. FCF converts 148% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 5.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.46 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $75.75 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $110.91 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $164.52 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

FTDR vs the Top Picks average

PillarFTDRBook avgDiff
Quality0.720.82-0.10
Growth0.830.90-0.07
Value0.420.75-0.33

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.3 over 32 daily scores
From 61.8 (Jun 22) → 63.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
27
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$55.22
25% below $73.63
$ at risk if stopped
$496.97
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR): score, valuation & FAQ

Frontdoor, Inc. (FTDR) is a Personal Services company that scores 63.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, FTDR sits about 4% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is FTDR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores FTDR 63.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Frontdoor, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does FTDR score 63.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FTDR earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $73.63, FTDR sits about 4% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 9% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 21.0x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in FTDR?

D/E 5.21 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Beta 1.46 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Consumer Services stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →