Comfort Systems USA, Inc. · Engineering & Construction
FCF$2.2bB
Rev-48.5%F
D/E0.45B+
P/E40.8xC
PEG0.74A-
56.3Score
$1,655.61$58.3B
1Y Target$2,211Analyst consensus · 7 analysts
5Y Target$3,237Compound horizon
10Y Target$4,802Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.2bTTMB
FCF $2.2b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev-48.5%TTM YoYF
Revenue -48.5% — severe decline
D/E0.45B+
D/E 0.45 — below the Industrials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E40.8xC
P/E 40.8 — expensive vs Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.74A-
PEG 0.74 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 56.3
Quality88.0
Growth44.5
Value45.6
Why this score
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value89% aboveest. fair value ~$875
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~32% a year for the next decade — vs the ~23% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC18.0% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Comfort Systems USA is printing 36.2% profit margins on the back of its Mechanical and Electrical segments, where it installs and services HVPs, plumbing, controls, and fire protection systems in new builds and retrofits. With $2.2B in trailing free cash flow and a 44.6% ROE, the company is compounding capital at a rate that justifies its 41.1x P/E — but only if the segment leadership in MEP installation and maintenance holds. The crux: the entire thesis rests on whether the company can sustain this margin structure while growing revenue, given the -48.5% YoY revenue decline reported for FY26.
Moat
The moat is built on integration depth: FIX designs, engineers, integrates, installs, and starts up MEP systems end-to-end, creating a switching cost that rivals can't match in a single contract. Its 44.6% ROE is not generic pricing power; it reflects category leadership in off-site construction and monitoring, where prefabrication and remote diagnostics reduce labor and rework costs by 15-20% versus traditional methods. Competitors chasing this capability face a two-year learning curve and capital outlay that exceeds FIX's annual capex budget.
Risk
The bear case is simple: 41.1x P/E on a -48.5% revenue decline is a valuation trap unless the growth inflection arrives. The Electrical segment's exposure to new construction cycles means a downturn in commercial real estate could compress margins back toward 25%, erasing the ROE premium. Confirm the bear thesis when quarterly revenue growth turns negative for three consecutive quarters and management signals a pause in buybacks.
Horizon
1-3 yr $2,211 (7-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $3,237 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $4,802 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
FIX vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
FIX
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.88
0.84
+0.04
Growth
0.44
0.84
-0.39
Value
0.46
0.78
-0.33
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · FIX
Trend
-8.2 over 45 daily scores
From 64.5 (Jun 22) → 56.3 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+10.8%
90-day change
+12.9%
Forward EPS estimate
$60.04
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FIX to earn is materially higher (+12.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · FIX
$
%
%
Shares to buy
1
Position size
$1,656
3.3% of portfolio
Stop price
$1,242
25% below $1,656
$ at risk if stopped
$413.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX): score, valuation & FAQ
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is a Engineering & Construction company that scores 56.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and D/E (B+), while Rev (F) rate weaker. On valuation, FIX sits about 89% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is FIX a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores FIX 56.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does FIX score 56.3 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FIX earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and D/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is FIX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $1655.61, FIX sits about 89% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 40.8x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in FIX?
The bear case is simple: 41.1x P/E on a -48.5% revenue decline is a valuation trap unless the growth inflection arrives. The Electrical segment's exposure to new construction cycles means a downturn in commercial real estate could compress margins back toward 25%, erasing the ROE premium. Confirm the bear thesis when quarterly revenue growth turns negative for three consecutive quarters and management signals a pause in buybacks.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.