Bull Rankings model

Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR) stock analysis

Communication Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
EXTR
Extreme Networks, Inc. · Communication Equipment
54.9Score
$24.19Oct 9 close$3.2B
1Y Target$33.50Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$49.05Compound horizon
10Y Target$72.76Long-dated conviction
FCF$95mTTM · 06/26
C-
FCF $95m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+12.6%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +12.6% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E2.20
D
D/E 2.20 — most levered decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
P/E78.0x
C
P/E 78.0 — expensive vs Technology peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.89
B+
PEG 0.89 — near fair value (1.0 is the usual benchmark)

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 54.9
Quality70.5
Growth77.5
Value30.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
28% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value199% aboveest. fair value ~$8
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 40% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~13% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability67% · Agross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC19.6% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Communication Equipment · market cap $3.2b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $33.73 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.89 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $33.50 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
ROE 48% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income, mostly because of stock-based pay ($88m) — a real cost to shareholders, paid in shares rather than cash.
Risk
D/E 2.20 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 78.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.76 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $33.50 (8-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $49.05 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $72.76 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

EXTR vs the Top Picks average

PillarEXTRBook avgDiff
Quality7183-12
Growth7789-12
Value3076-46

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+10.7 over 82 daily scores
From 44.2 (Jun 22) → 54.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

EXTR at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD54.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY70.5GROWTH77.5VALUE30.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~40% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$7.3–$9.3FAIR-VALUE RANGE$24.2PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$8.1 · price $24.2 is 199% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+24%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$24.2LOW $13.5HIGH $33.7Trading at the 53rd percentile of its 52-week range ($13.5–$33.7).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$1.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EXTR to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
82
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.14
25% below $24.19
$ at risk if stopped
$495.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR): score, valuation & FAQ

Extreme Networks, Inc. (EXTR) is a Communication Equipment company that scores 54.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), while FCF (C-) and D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, EXTR sits about 199% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 40% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is EXTR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EXTR 54.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Extreme Networks, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EXTR score 54.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 77.5 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 30.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. EXTR earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-) and D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so EXTR is measured against Communication Equipment peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is EXTR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $24.19, EXTR sits about 199% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 40% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 78.0x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EXTR?

D/E 2.20 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 78.0x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Beta 1.76 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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