Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ETON analysis

Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ETON
Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
FCF$15mC-
Rev+81.5%A
D/E1.02C
P/E150.9xD
PEG1.40B
72.0Score
$58.86$1.6B
1Y Target$62.33Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$91.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$135.38Long-dated conviction
FCF$15mTTM
C-
FCF $15m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+81.5%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +81.5% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.02
C
D/E 1.02 — more levered than most Healthcare peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E150.9x
D
P/E 150.9 — most expensive decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.40est.
B
PEG 1.40 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72
Quality75.6
Growth100.0
Value50.0
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
1% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value317% aboveest. fair value ~$14
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~53% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability53% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.3% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
ETON’s rare‑disease franchise is exploding, with its commercial portfolio – led by Increlex and Alkindi – fueling an 81.5% YoY revenue surge and delivering a healthy 12% profit margin. The business converts that top‑line firepower into a stellar 27.2% ROE, proving that each new indication compounds earnings. The bull case rests on the continued roll‑out of late‑stage candidates (ET‑600, Amglidia) that will keep the growth engine humming and push the stock toward the analyst consensus of $62.33.
Moat
ETON’s moat comes from its orphan‑drug pipeline and FDA‑granted exclusivities, which create high switching costs for clinicians treating ultra‑rare conditions. Pricing power in these niche markets underpins the 27.2% ROE, as insurers and specialty pharmacies have few alternatives to ETON’s approved products like Increlex and Alkindi.
Risk
The stock trades at an eye‑watering P/E of 150.9 and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.02, meaning any slowdown in the 81.5% revenue growth or margin compression would slam valuation multiples. Our model’s reverse DCF assumes a 53% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade – far above realistic sustainable rates – and a single‑quarter miss would trigger a sharp re‑rating, confirming the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $62.33 (3-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $91.26 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $135.38 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ETON vs the Top Picks average

PillarETONBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.84-0.08
Growth1.000.85+0.15
Value0.500.78-0.28

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · ETON
Trend
0.0 over 2 daily scores
From 72.0 (Aug 14) → 72.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Position sizing · ETON
Shares to buy
33
Position size
$1,942
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$44.14
25% below $58.86
$ at risk if stopped
$485.59
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Latest ETON developments

Recent headlines from across the financial press · updated daily. Links open the source.

Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ETON): score, valuation & FAQ

Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ETON) is a Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic company that scores 72 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), while FCF (C-) and P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, ETON sits about 317% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 53% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ETON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ETON 72 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ETON score 72 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ETON earns its highest marks on Rev (A), and is held back by FCF (C-) and P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ETON overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $58.86, ETON sits about 317% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 53% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 150.9x P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ETON?

The stock trades at an eye‑watering P/E of 150.9 and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.02, meaning any slowdown in the 81.5% revenue growth or margin compression would slam valuation multiples. Our model’s reverse DCF assumes a 53% annual free‑cash‑flow growth for a decade – far above realistic sustainable rates – and a single‑quarter miss would trigger a sharp re‑rating, confirming the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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