Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) stock analysis
Utilities - Regulated Electric. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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ELPC
Companhia Paranaense de Energia · Utilities - Regulated Electric
59.4Score
$14.19Oct 9 close$10.5B
1Y Target$17.00Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$21.46Compound horizon
10Y Target$27.52Long-dated conviction
FCF$366mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $366m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+15.3%FY YoYB+
Revenue +15.3% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.98A-
D/E 0.98 — less debt than most Utilities peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E17.5xB+
P/E 17.5 — below the Utilities median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.61est.A-
PEG 0.61 — strong; the growth comes cheap · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 59.4
Quality44.6
Growth81.7
Value78.7
Why this score
Short track record
Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value51% aboveest. fair value ~$9
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 21% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~15% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Utilities - Regulated Electric · market cap $10.5b. Trading near 52-week high of $14.51 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.61 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 3 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $17.00 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $17.00 (3-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $21.46 at ~9% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $27.52 if the moat survives secular pressure.
ELPC vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ELPC
Book avg
Diff
Quality
45
83
-38
Growth
82
89
-7
Value
79
76
+3
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ELPC
Trend
-6.8 over 82 daily scores
From 66.2 (Jun 22) → 59.4 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ELPC at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate
$0.73
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ELPC to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ELPC
$
%
%
Shares to buy
140
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$10.64
25% below $14.19
$ at risk if stopped
$496.65
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC): score, valuation & FAQ
Companhia Paranaense de Energia (ELPC) is a Utilities - Regulated Electric company that scores 59.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, ELPC sits about 51% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 21% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is ELPC a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ELPC 59.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Companhia Paranaense de Energia's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ELPC score 59.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on growth at 81.7 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 44.6 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ELPC earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ELPC is measured against Utilities - Regulated Electric peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ELPC overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $14.19, ELPC sits about 51% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 21% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 17.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ELPC?
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.