Duolingo, Inc. — Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.
★
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$416mC
Rev+38.7%A
D/E0.07A-
P/E15.1xA-
PEG0.38A
74.9Score
$132.00$6.2B
1Y Target$106.31Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$134.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$172.13Long-dated conviction
FCF$416mTTMC
FCF $416m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+38.7%TTM YoYA
Revenue +38.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.07A-
D/E 0.07 — less debt than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E15.1xA-
P/E 15.1 — cheaper than most Technology peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.38proxyA
PEG 0.38 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 74.9
Quality0.72
Growth0.68
Value0.86
Why this score
Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
72% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value33% belowest. fair value ~$198
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~1% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability39% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC8.9% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Duolingo’s AI‑driven adaptive learning platform is unlocking relentless user expansion, fueling a revenue surge of 38.7% YoY while converting that growth into a high‑margin engine delivering 38.4% profit margin and $416 m of free cash flow – the compounding trifecta that will keep earnings accelerating as more learners upgrade to premium tiers. The thesis hinges on the platform’s ability to continuously personalize lessons, locking in stickier subscriptions and sustaining the growth loop.
Moat
The moat lives in Duolingo’s massive, data‑rich user base that powers its proprietary AI engine, creating a self‑reinforcing cycle of better personalization that competitors can’t replicate quickly. This engine underpins a ROE of 30.3%, reflecting pricing power from being the category leader in freemium language learning and the ability to monetize engagement at premium rates.
Risk
The consensus 1‑year target of $104.55 sits below the current $109.03 price, signaling market skepticism that growth may decelerate; a slowdown in revenue growth below 30% YoY or a margin dip would validate the bears. A downgrade from the 17 analysts or a breach of the 52‑week low ($87.89) would confirm the downside thesis.
Horizon
1-3 yr $106.31 (17-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $134.22 at ~0% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $172.13 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Score history · DUOL
Trend
+1.4 over 15 daily scores
From 73.5 (Jun 22) → 74.9 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · DUOL
$
%
%
Shares to buy
15
Position size
$1,980
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$99.00
25% below $132.00
$ at risk if stopped
$495.02
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL): score, valuation & FAQ
Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is a Software - Application company that scores 74.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-). On valuation, DUOL sits about 33% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is DUOL a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores DUOL 74.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Duolingo, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does DUOL score 74.9 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). DUOL earns its highest marks on Rev (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is DUOL overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $132.00, DUOL sits about 33% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 1% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 15.1x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in DUOL?
The consensus 1‑year target of $104.55 sits below the current $109.03 price, signaling market skepticism that growth may decelerate; a slowdown in revenue growth below 30% YoY or a margin dip would validate the bears. A downgrade from the 17 analysts or a breach of the 52‑week low ($87.89) would confirm the downside thesis.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.