1Y Target$104.55Near-term target
5Y Target$171.49Compound horizon
10Y Target$252.08Long-dated conviction
FCF$405mTTM · 03/26CFCF $405m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+26.5%TTM YoYA-Revenue +26.5% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.07AD/E 0.07 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet
P/E12.2xB+P/E 12.2 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $5.0b. Down 80% from 52-week high of $540.30 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +27% — in hypergrowth territory. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $104.55 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 38% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 37% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 80% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $104.55 (17-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $171.49 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $252.08 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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