1Y Target$81.21Near-term target
5Y Target$83.85Compound horizon
10Y Target$107.03Long-dated conviction
FCF$679mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $679m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+3.9%TTM YoYC+Revenue +3.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.31B+D/E 0.31 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E12.5xB+P/E 12.5 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG0.94B+PEG 0.94 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Software - Infrastructure · market cap $6.7b. Down 34% from 52-week high of $95.41 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.94 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $81.21 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 124% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Software — competitive moat is durable until it isn't; watch net revenue retention, gross margin trends, and any new market entrant with a fundamentally lower price point.
Horizon
1-3 yr $81.21 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $83.85 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $107.03 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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