Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CIEN analysis

Ciena CorporationCommunication Equipment. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

CIEN
Ciena Corporation · Communication Equipment
FCF$833mC+
Rev+18.8%B+
D/E0.55B
P/E147.2xD
PEG0.75A-
58.5Score
$462.34$65.4B
1Y Target$565.71Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$828.25Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,229Long-dated conviction
FCF$833mTTM
C+
FCF $833m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+18.8%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +18.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.55
B
D/E 0.55 — near the Technology debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E147.2x
D
P/E 147.2 — most expensive decile in Technology (≈95th pctile)
PEG0.75
A-
PEG 0.75 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.5
Quality0.62
Growth0.82
Value0.40
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value309% aboveest. fair value ~$113
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability40% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.1% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Communication Equipment · market cap $65.4b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $637.51 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.75 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $565.71 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 190% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $65.4b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trailing P/E 147.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 11.8x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.
Horizon
1-3 yr $565.71 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $828.25 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,229 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,849
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$346.75
25% below $462.34
$ at risk if stopped
$462.34
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ciena Corporation (CIEN): score, valuation & FAQ

Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is a Communication Equipment company that scores 58.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), while P/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CIEN sits about 309% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).

Is CIEN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CIEN 58.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Ciena Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CIEN score 58.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CIEN earns its highest marks on PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by P/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CIEN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $462.34, CIEN sits about 309% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 147.2x× P/E (graded D). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CIEN?

Trailing P/E 147.2x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. P/S 11.8x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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