Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BMY analysis

Bristol-Myers Squibb CompanyDrug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Pharma
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$11.4bA-
Rev+3.1%C+
D/E2.02D
P/E14.8xA-
PEG2.37C
61.5Score
$67.28$137.4B
1Y Target$66.21Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$83.59Compound horizon
10Y Target$107.20Long-dated conviction
FCF$11.4bTTM
A-
FCF $11.4b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+3.1%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.1% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E2.02
D
D/E 2.02 — most levered decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
P/E14.8x
A-
P/E 14.8 — cheaper than most Healthcare peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG2.37
C
PEG 2.37 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 61.5
Quality78.9
Growth57.2
Value51.5
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value2% belowest. fair value ~$68
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-2% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability39% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $137.4b. Trading near 52-week high of $68.64 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 24 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $66.21 (implying -2% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 42% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $66.21 (24-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $83.59 at ~4% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $107.20 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BMY vs the Top Picks average

PillarBMYBook avgDiff
Quality0.790.84-0.05
Growth0.570.87-0.30
Value0.520.76-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+7.0 over 48 daily scores
From 54.5 (Jun 22) → 61.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+5.8%
90-day change+6.3%
Forward EPS estimate$6.56

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect BMY to earn is materially higher (+6.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
29
Position size
$1,951
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$50.46
25% below $67.28
$ at risk if stopped
$487.78
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY): score, valuation & FAQ

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 61.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-) and P/E (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, BMY sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly -2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BMY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BMY 61.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Bristol-Myers Squibb Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BMY score 61.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BMY earns its highest marks on FCF (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BMY overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $67.28, BMY sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly -2% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 14.8x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BMY?

D/E 2.02 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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