Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BLKB analysis

Blackbaud, Inc.Software - Application. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc. · Software - Application
FCF$307mC
Rev-0.6%D+
D/E
P/E11.2xA
PEG0.35A
72.4Score
$33.03$1.5B
1Y Target$48.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$60.60Compound horizon
10Y Target$77.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$307mTTM
C
FCF $307m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-0.6%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -0.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E11.2x
A
P/E 11.2 — cheapest decile in Technology (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.35
A
PEG 0.35 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 72.4
Quality0.80
Growth0.50
Value0.95
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Revenue shrinking
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
56% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value73% belowest. fair value ~$121
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-22% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability32% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.4% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Blackbaud’s AI‑powered fundraising platform—Raiser's Edge NXT—locks nonprofits into a high‑margin, recurring SaaS model that now generates $307 m of free cash flow on a 12.4% profit margin while trading at a rock‑bottom PE of 11.2x. The stock trades at $33.03, well below the analyst consensus 1‑yr target of $48, offering >45% upside as the suite’s cross‑sell of CRM, Luminate Online and Grantmaking drives steady subscription upgrades. The thesis rests on the durable, subscription‑driven cash flow that compounds each year through renewal and upsell.
Moat
Blackbaud’s moat stems from its integrated, end‑to‑end nonprofit ecosystem—Raiser's Edge NXT, Blackbaud CRM, Luminate Online and Grantmaking—creating high switching costs as organizations embed donor data, compliance workflows and reporting across the suite. This data lock‑in, combined with sector‑specific compliance expertise, prevents rivals from quickly replicating the depth of functionality needed by charities and educational institutions.
Risk
Revenue is contracting, down 0.6% YoY, and our reverse‑DCF shows the current price implies a -22% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate for the next decade—an unrealistic assumption that signals the market is already pricing in severe slowdown. The Bull Rankings model flags weak growth (Growth pillar 50) as the weakest attribute; a continued revenue decline would crush margins and force share‑price compression below the 52‑week low of $25.58.
Horizon
1-3 yr $48.00 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $60.60 at ~13% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $77.72 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.1 over 7 daily scores
From 72.5 (Jun 22) → 72.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
60
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$24.77
25% below $33.03
$ at risk if stopped
$495.45
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB): score, valuation & FAQ

Blackbaud, Inc. (BLKB) is a Software - Application company that scores 72.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (A), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, BLKB sits about 73% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -22% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BLKB a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BLKB 72.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Blackbaud, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BLKB score 72.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BLKB earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BLKB overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $33.03, BLKB sits about 73% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -22% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.2x× P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BLKB?

Revenue is contracting, down 0.6% YoY, and our reverse‑DCF shows the current price implies a -22% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate for the next decade—an unrealistic assumption that signals the market is already pricing in severe slowdown. The Bull Rankings model flags weak growth (Growth pillar 50) as the weakest attribute; a continued revenue decline would crush margins and force share‑price compression below the 52‑week low of $25.58.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Technology stocks by score

All Technology rankings →

Analyze another ticker →