1Y Target$55.10Near-term target
5Y Target$72.69Compound horizon
10Y Target$189.15Long-dated conviction
FCF$327mTTM · 03/26CFCF $327m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+13.5%TTM YoYB+Revenue +13.5% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.50B+D/E 0.50 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/S2.2xA-P/S 2.2x — cheap for any tech/growth name
PEG0.36APEG 0.36 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth
Why now
Software - Application · market cap $3.6b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $57.21 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.36 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $55.10 (implying +52% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 200372% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. Software economics — recurring revenue, embedded customer workflows, and high gross margin all compound the moat once a base account is won. Switching costs are the lever.
Risk
Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 0.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 0% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $55.10 (21-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $72.69 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $189.15 — return distribution heavily skewed.
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