Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AWI analysis

Armstrong World Industries, Inc.Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
FCF$239mC
Rev+9.7%B
D/E0.64B
P/E22.1xB+
PEG2.02C
69.1Score
$155.97$6.7B
1Y Target$204.10Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$298.82Compound horizon
10Y Target$443.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$239mTTM
C
FCF $239m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+9.7%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.64
B
D/E 0.64 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E22.1x
B+
P/E 22.1 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.02
C
PEG 2.02 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.1
Quality0.87
Growth0.83
Value0.46
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
24% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value72% aboveest. fair value ~$90
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability33% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC24.0% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Armstrong’s Mineral Fiber segment is riding a secular upswing in commercial construction, delivering 9.7% revenue growth while converting that into a 34.3% ROE and generating $239 million of free cash flow—a rare high‑margin growth combo that fuels compounding earnings. The bull case hinges on the continued rollout of specialty ceiling systems that lock in repeat spend and drive sustainable cash generation.
Moat
The integrated ceiling and wall solutions in the Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments create high switching costs for architects and contractors who rely on AWI’s engineered products, allowing the company to command pricing power that underpins its 34.3% ROE.
Risk
The stock trades at a premium P/E of 22.1, assuming a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~23% versus the actual 9.7% revenue growth, leaving little margin for error if construction spending slows; a dip in commercial demand would quickly erode the valuation cushion. A breach of the 52‑week low or a widening of the debt‑to‑equity ratio above 0.64 would confirm the bear case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $204.10 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $298.82 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $443.28 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-0.5 over 22 daily scores
From 69.6 (Jun 22) → 69.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,872
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$116.98
25% below $155.97
$ at risk if stopped
$467.91
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI): score, valuation & FAQ

Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 69.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, AWI sits about 72% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AWI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AWI 69.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Armstrong World Industries, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AWI score 69.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AWI earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AWI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $155.97, AWI sits about 72% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.1x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AWI?

The stock trades at a premium P/E of 22.1, assuming a reverse‑DCF implied free‑cash‑flow growth of ~23% versus the actual 9.7% revenue growth, leaving little margin for error if construction spending slows; a dip in commercial demand would quickly erode the valuation cushion. A breach of the 52‑week low or a widening of the debt‑to‑equity ratio above 0.64 would confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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