Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) stock analysis
Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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AWI
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
68.9Score
$161.87Oct 9 close$6.8B
1Y Target$210.18Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$307.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$456.49Long-dated conviction
FCF$247mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $247m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+8.6%TTM YoYB
Revenue +8.6% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.66B
D/E 0.66 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E22.3xB+
P/E 22.3 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.02C
PEG 2.02 — expensive relative to growth rate
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 68.9
Quality86.9
Growth73.4
Value51.2
Why this score
Buying back stock
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
21% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value77% aboveest. fair value ~$91
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~12% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability34% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC24.6% · Areturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $6.8b. Down 21% from 52-week high of $206.08 — deep drawdown territory. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $210.18 (implying +30% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 36% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $210.18 (11-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $307.73 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $456.49 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
AWI vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
AWI
Book avg
Diff
Quality
87
83
+4
Growth
73
89
-16
Value
51
76
-25
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · AWI
Trend
-0.7 over 82 daily scores
From 69.6 (Jun 22) → 68.9 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
AWI at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-0.1%
90-day change
+2.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$9.58
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AWI to earn is drifting higher (+2.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · AWI
$
%
%
Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,942
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$121.40
25% below $161.87
$ at risk if stopped
$485.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI): score, valuation & FAQ
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 68.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (B+). On valuation, AWI sits about 77% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is AWI a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores AWI 68.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Armstrong World Industries, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does AWI score 68.9 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 86.9 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 51.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AWI earns its highest marks on P/E (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AWI is measured against Building Products & Equipment peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is AWI overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $161.87, AWI sits about 77% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 23% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 22.3x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in AWI?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.