Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AVAV analysis

AeroVironment, Inc.Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Defense & Drones
AVAV
AeroVironment, Inc. · Aerospace & Defense
FCF-$141mF
Rev+140.9%A
D/E0.19A-
P/S4.4xC+
PEG1.57C+
42.7Score
$169.94$8.6B
1Y Target$225.77Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$394.87Compound horizon
10Y Target$705.70Long-dated conviction
FCF-$141mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$141m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+140.9%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +140.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.19
A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S4.4x
C+
P/S 4.4x — above the Industrials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.57
C+
PEG 1.57 — modest premium; above fair value

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 42.7
Quality0.19
Growth1.00
Value0.41
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
59% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability9% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-4.8% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $8.6b. Down 59% from 52-week high of $417.86 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +141% — in hypergrowth territory. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $225.77 (implying +33% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$141m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -13.4%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 59% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $225.77 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $394.87 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $705.70 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AVAV vs the Top Picks average

PillarAVAVBook avgDiff
Quality0.190.83-0.64
Growth1.000.91+0.09
Value0.410.75-0.33

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.5 over 34 daily scores
From 41.2 (Jun 22) → 42.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,869
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$127.46
25% below $169.94
$ at risk if stopped
$467.35
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV): score, valuation & FAQ

AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a Aerospace & Defense company that scores 42.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (A-), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is AVAV a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AVAV 42.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of AeroVironment, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AVAV score 42.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AVAV earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AVAV overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for AVAV — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in AVAV?

Free cash flow is negative (-$141m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -13.4%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 59% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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