Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ATO analysis

Atmos Energy CorporationUtilities - Regulated Gas. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation · Utilities - Regulated Gas
FCF-$2.0bF
Rev+6.5%C+
D/E0.68A
P/S5.7xD
PEG2.07C
54.2Score
$166.85$28.2B
1Y Target$188.73Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$330.09Compound horizon
10Y Target$589.93Long-dated conviction
FCF-$2.0bTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$2.0b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+6.5%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.68
A
D/E 0.68 — least levered decile in Utilities (≈10th pctile)
P/S5.7x
D
P/S 5.7x — most expensive decile in Utilities (≈95th pctile)
PEG2.07
C
PEG 2.07 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.2
Quality53.8
Growth60.0
Value49.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
13% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability11% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.7% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Utilities - Regulated Gas · market cap $28.2b. 13% off the 52-week high of $192.51. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $188.73 (implying +13% upside).
Moat
Net margin 28% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$2.0b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $188.73 (11-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $330.09 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $589.93 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ATO vs the Top Picks average

PillarATOBook avgDiff
Quality0.540.84-0.30
Growth0.600.84-0.24
Value0.490.78-0.29

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.2 over 47 daily scores
From 59.4 (Jun 22) → 54.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.0%
90-day change+0.5%
Forward EPS estimate$9.02

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ATO to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,835
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$125.14
25% below $166.85
$ at risk if stopped
$458.84
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO): score, valuation & FAQ

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is a Utilities - Regulated Gas company that scores 54.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), while P/S (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is ATO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ATO 54.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Atmos Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ATO score 54.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ATO earns its highest marks on D/E (A), and is held back by P/S (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ATO — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ATO?

Free cash flow is negative (-$2.0b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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