Bull Rankings model

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) stock analysis

Utilities - Regulated Gas. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
ATO
Atmos Energy Corporation · Utilities - Regulated Gas
47.2Score
$161.66Oct 9 close$27.3B
1Y Target$185.00Analyst consensus · 11 analysts
5Y Target$323.57Compound horizon
10Y Target$578.28Long-dated conviction
FCF-$2.0bTTM · 06/26
F
FCF is negative (-$2.0b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+6.5%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.68
A
D/E 0.68 — least levered decile in Utilities (≈10th pctile)
P/S*5.6x
D
P/S 5.6x — most expensive decile in Utilities (≈95th pctile)
PEG1.94
C+
PEG 1.94 — modest premium; above fair value

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 47.2
Quality52.2
Growth62.6
Value32.1
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
16% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
Gross profitability11% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC7.7% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Utilities - Regulated Gas · market cap $27.3b. 16% off the 52-week high of $192.51. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $185.00 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
Net margin 28% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$2.0b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $185.00 (11-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $323.57 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $578.28 — return distribution heavily skewed.

ATO vs the Top Picks average

PillarATOBook avgDiff
Quality5283-31
Growth6389-26
Value3276-44

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-12.2 over 82 daily scores
From 59.4 (Jun 22) → 47.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

ATO at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD47.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY52.2GROWTH62.6VALUE32.1
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$162LOW $155HIGH $193Trading at the 18th percentile of its 52-week range ($155–$193).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-9%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100ATO 47.2Ranks above 46% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.1%
90-day change+0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$9.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ATO to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
12
Position size
$1,940
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$121.25
25% below $161.66
$ at risk if stopped
$484.98
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO): score, valuation & FAQ

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) is a Utilities - Regulated Gas company that scores 47.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), while P/S (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is ATO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ATO 47.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Atmos Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ATO score 47.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 62.6 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 32.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ATO earns its highest marks on D/E (A), and is held back by P/S (D) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ATO is measured against Utilities - Regulated Gas peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is ATO overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for ATO — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in ATO?

Free cash flow is negative (-$2.0b) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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