Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ARLO analysis

Arlo Technologies IncElectrical Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ARLO
Arlo Technologies Inc · Electrical Equipment
FCF$76mC-
Rev+10.8%B
D/E0.05A
P/E50.3xD+
PEG
47.6Score
$13.10$1.4B
1Y Target$15.06Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$22.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$32.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$76mTTM · 03/26
C-
FCF $76m — barely positive; fragile cash position · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+10.8%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +10.8% — at or above S&P median · TTM YoY from trailing-4-quarter revenue sum vs prior 4 quarters.
D/E0.05total
A
D/E 0.05 — essentially debt-free, pristine balance sheet · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E50.3x
D+
P/E 50.3 — expensive; prices in flawless execution
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 47.6
Quality61.2
Growth71.8
Value24.5
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
34% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value57% aboveest. fair value ~$8
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~20% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Electrical Equipment · market cap $1.4b. Down 34% from 52-week high of $19.94 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median.
Moat
ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Trailing P/E 50.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $15.06 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $22.06 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $32.72 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ARLO vs the Top Picks average

PillarARLOBook avgDiff
Quality0.610.84-0.23
Growth0.720.84-0.12
Value0.240.78-0.54

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-11.7 over 25 daily scores
From 59.3 (Jun 22) → 47.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+4.4%
90-day change+3.8%
Forward EPS estimate$1.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ARLO to earn is drifting higher (+3.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
152
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.82
25% below $13.10
$ at risk if stopped
$497.80
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Arlo Technologies Inc (ARLO): score, valuation & FAQ

Arlo Technologies Inc (ARLO) is a Electrical Equipment company that scores 47.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), while FCF (C-) and P/E (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, ARLO sits about 57% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 20% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ARLO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ARLO 47.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Arlo Technologies Inc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ARLO score 47.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ARLO earns its highest marks on D/E (A), and is held back by FCF (C-) and P/E (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ARLO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $13.10, ARLO sits about 57% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 20% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 50.3x P/E (graded D+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ARLO?

Trailing P/E 50.3x prices in sustained high growth — any quarter that disappoints triggers sharp re-rating. Down 34% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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