Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AMGN analysis

Amgen Inc.Drug Manufacturers - General. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Weight-Loss Drugs
AMGN
Amgen Inc. · Drug Manufacturers - General
FCF$8.6bB+
Rev+9.1%B
D/E6.24D
P/E27.1xB
PEG2.11C
58.1Score
$389.71$210.3B
1Y Target$357.03Analyst consensus · 29 analysts
5Y Target$522.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$775.44Long-dated conviction
FCF$8.6bTTM
B+
FCF $8.6b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+9.1%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.1% — at or above S&P median
D/E6.24
D
D/E 6.24 — most levered decile in Healthcare (≈95th pctile)
P/E27.1x
B
P/E 27.1 — near the Healthcare median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.11
C
PEG 2.11 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.1
Quality0.76
Growth0.78
Value0.33
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value59% aboveest. fair value ~$244
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability27% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.2% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Drug Manufacturers - General · market cap $210.3b. Trading near 52-week high of $398.00 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 29 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $357.03 (implying -8% upside).
Moat
Net margin 21% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 85% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 110% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
D/E 6.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.
Horizon
1-3 yr $357.03 (29-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $522.73 at ~6% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $775.44 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AMGN vs the Top Picks average

PillarAMGNBook avgDiff
Quality0.760.83-0.07
Growth0.780.91-0.13
Value0.330.75-0.42

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.0 over 34 daily scores
From 57.1 (Jun 22) → 58.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
5
Position size
$1,949
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$292.29
25% below $389.71
$ at risk if stopped
$487.14
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Amgen Inc. (AMGN): score, valuation & FAQ

Amgen Inc. (AMGN) is a Drug Manufacturers - General company that scores 58.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, AMGN sits about 59% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AMGN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AMGN 58.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Amgen Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AMGN score 58.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AMGN earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AMGN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $389.71, AMGN sits about 59% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.1x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AMGN?

D/E 6.24 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trial-readout binary — late-stage clinical trials carry approve/reject outcomes that swing valuation 30%+; the equity is effectively a portfolio of these binary events, not a steady cash-flow business.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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