Bull Rankings model

AAR Corp. (AIR) stock analysis

Aerospace & Defense. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AIR
AAR Corp. · Aerospace & Defense
66.9Score
$100.43Oct 9 close$4.0B
1Y Target$154.50Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$226.20Compound horizon
10Y Target$335.56Long-dated conviction
FCF$33mTTM · 05/26
C-
FCF $33m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 05/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+19.0%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +19.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.56
B
D/E 0.56 — near the Industrials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E20.6x
B+
P/E 20.6 — below the Industrials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG2.40
C
PEG 2.40 — expensive relative to growth rate

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 66.9
Quality48.9
Growth88.2
Value69.4
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
35% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value597% aboveest. fair value ~$14
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing over 60% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~16% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Aerospace & Defense · market cap $4.0b. Down 35% from 52-week high of $154.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +19%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $154.50 (implying +54% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $154.50 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $226.20 at ~18% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $335.56 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

AIR vs the Top Picks average

PillarAIRBook avgDiff
Quality4983-34
Growth8889in line
Value6976-7

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+12.7 over 81 daily scores
From 54.2 (Jun 22) → 66.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AIR at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD66.9/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY48.9GROWTH88.2VALUE69.4Reverse-DCF · Price implies 60%+ growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$12.4–$17.8FAIR-VALUE RANGE$100PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$14.4 · price $100 is 597% above it.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100AIR 66.9Top 14% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+30%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.6%
90-day change+2.1%
Forward EPS estimate$6.71

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AIR to earn is drifting higher (+2.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,908
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$75.32
25% below $100.43
$ at risk if stopped
$477.04
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

AAR Corp. (AIR): score, valuation & FAQ

AAR Corp. (AIR) is an Aerospace & Defense company that scores 66.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, AIR sits about 597% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing over 60% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is AIR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AIR 66.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of AAR Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AIR score 66.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 88.2 out of 100, with quality the weakest pillar at 48.9 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AIR earns its highest marks on Rev (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AIR is measured against Aerospace & Defense peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AIR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $100.43, AIR sits about 597% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing over 60% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 20.6x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AIR?

Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

More Aerospace & Defense stocks by score

All Industrials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →