1Y Target$247.55Near-term target
5Y Target$239.86Compound horizon
10Y Target$306.17Long-dated conviction
FCF$12.5bTTM · 02/26A-FCF $12.5b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 02/26).
Rev+8.3%TTM YoYBRevenue +8.3% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.25A-D/E 0.25 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E14.7xB+P/E 14.7 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG1.26BPEG 1.26 — acceptable premium for growth
Why now
Information Technology Services · market cap $110.3b. Down 44% from 52-week high of $321.77 — deep drawdown territory. 26 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $247.55 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
ROE 25% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 163% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $110.3b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Down 44% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $247.55 (26-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $239.86 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $306.17 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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