Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TSM analysis

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company LimitedSemiconductors. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AI
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · Semiconductors
FCF$35.1bA
Rev+33.9%A
D/E0.15B+
P/E35.4xB
PEG1.02B+
69.6Score
$403.31$2.1T
1Y Target$540.20Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$790.91Compound horizon
10Y Target$1,173Long-dated conviction
FCF$35.1bTTM · 06/26
A
FCF $35.1b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+33.9%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +33.9% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.15
B+
D/E 0.15 — below the Technology debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E35.4x
B
P/E 35.4 — near the Technology median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.02
B+
PEG 1.02 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.6
Quality0.90
Growth0.98
Value0.52
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Foreign reporter (TWD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value204% aboveest. fair value ~$133
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~45% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC23.3% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Semiconductors · market cap $2.1T. 16% off the 52-week high of $479.00. Revenue growing +34% — in hypergrowth territory. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $540.20 (implying +34% upside).
Moat
Net margin 40% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. $2.1T market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Trailing P/E 35x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 15.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Semiconductor cyclicality — inventory corrections compress margins faster than analysts model. Monitor channel inventory and book-to-bill ratios as leading indicators.
Horizon
1-3 yr $540.20 (18-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $790.91 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $1,173 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+7.1 over 31 daily scores
From 62.5 (Jun 22) → 69.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
4
Position size
$1,613
3.2% of portfolio
Stop price
$302.48
25% below $403.31
$ at risk if stopped
$403.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM): score, valuation & FAQ

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is a Semiconductors company that scores 69.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A), Rev (A) and D/E (B+). On valuation, TSM sits about 204% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 45% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TSM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TSM 69.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A), Rev (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TSM score 69.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TSM earns its highest marks on FCF (A), Rev (A) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $403.31, TSM sits about 204% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 45% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 35.4x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TSM?

Trailing P/E 35x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. P/S 15.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Semiconductor cyclicality — inventory corrections compress margins faster than analysts model. Monitor channel inventory and book-to-bill ratios as leading indicators.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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